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  #51  
Unread 07-08-2009, 04:23 PM
EJ53 EJ53 is offline
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt;
I posted my beliefs based on 40 years of experience. I didn't and don't want to get into a debate. Is it possible in this forum to share experience without hairsplitting debate?
That's disappointing, Amzolt.......debating issues is what I enjoy most on this forum and I was looking forward to tapping into that 40 years of experience to enlighten me about the many points I missed in your original post.

However, it would help me considerably in the future if (when your aim is to share rather than debate) you framed your "thread opener" in a less thought-provoking way........as I see that as a direct invitation to debate......(So, sorry for my misunderstanding on this thread opener).


Quote:
One other question: Why is it assumed by some that astrology has no need of the application of scientific principle?
Has anyone made that assumption?............My own view is simply that I have no desire to apply scientific principles to astrology.


EJ


Last edited by EJ53; 07-08-2009 at 05:52 PM.
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  #52  
Unread 07-08-2009, 04:29 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

Astrology doesn't predict events.

But many astrologers do.
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  #53  
Unread 07-08-2009, 04:31 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

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Originally Posted by Frank View Post
Astrology doesn't predict events.

But many astrologers do.
Whew!

Wonderfully simple and provocative comment!!!
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  #54  
Unread 07-08-2009, 04:37 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

My intended meaning is: Astrology itself is just a concept (or concepts) that without a practitioner can do absolutely nothing.

But a skilled practictioner of astrology can do many things - including predicting events using astrology.

Last edited by Frank; 07-08-2009 at 04:46 PM.
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  #55  
Unread 07-08-2009, 04:54 PM
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disproving a theory, to amzolt

amzolt,

You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
all it takes is one contrary occurrence of something to disprove a theory...So, astrology doesn't predict events, it predicts meanings...Is it possible in this forum to share experience without hairsplitting debate?
It is not true that it takes "one contrary occurrence of something to disprove a theory". There is something in statistics called "random error", indicating that sometimes errors "creep" into the calculations (more here: http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...dom-error.html ). So simply because there is one occurrence in the negative of a theory, this does not disprove the theory. This means you have not necessarily disproven the theory "astrology predicts events": your results could have simply been a "random error". And, as Frank correctly points out, your example shows only that the astrologer could not predict events but gives no proof that the event could not have been predicted by a different astrologer using the same astrology system (rectifying the chart, double-checking the birth time, location, finding the differences between the charts, etc.).

In answer to your question about posting without a debate: since this is a discussion forum for astrology, any and all opinions put on this forum are open to civil debate (i.e., no attacking posts, please!). So if you post your idea and someone has something to add to it or to disagree about it, expect a debate! Personally, I like this sort of interaction since I can get a new perspective or idea about my point of view, and sometimes I decide to change my original opinion based on what I heard. Whether or not you choose to participate in the debate or change your opinion is, of course, entirely up to you!

Debating the point,

Tim
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Last edited by wilsontc; 07-08-2009 at 05:11 PM.
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  #56  
Unread 07-08-2009, 05:50 PM
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Re: disproving a theory, to amzolt

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Originally Posted by wilsontc View Post
It is not true that it takes "one contrary occurrence of something to disprove a theory". There is something in statistics called "random error", indicating that sometimes errors "creep" into the calculations...
Try this on for size...

Quote:
Originally Posted by wilsontc View Post
...your example shows only that the astrologer could not predict events but gives no proof that the event could not have been predicted by a different astrologer using the same astrology system (rectifying the chart, double-checking the birth time, location, finding the differences between the charts, etc.).
When I said the birth times of those two fellows were "certified" I was saying that all the criteria you mention were accounted for. Plus, my contention doesn't rest on proof but on disproof, scientifically speaking...
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  #57  
Unread 07-08-2009, 08:51 PM
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other variables, to amzolt

amzolt,

You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
Try this on for size...When I said the birth times of those two fellows were "certified" I was saying that all the criteria you mention were accounted for. Plus, my contention doesn't rest on proof but on disproof, scientifically speaking
Hey! No fair! I gave you a few words and you gave me a philosophical treatise! Instead of linking to a philosophy page, please let me know in plain words what your point is.

And I still think you may be missing my point: you haven't "disproven" anything, scientifically speaking, since there are lots of other possible reasons that you couldn't predict an event astrologically, besides saying astrology itself was the reason. That is: the astrology might not have predicted the event because the person doing the astrology didn't know what to look for to distinguish between the two men, the astrology might not have predicted the event because one or both men didn't know their birth time and made a guess, the astrology might not have predicted the event because the astrological system used by the astrologer was not designed to be predictive, the astrology might not have predicted the event because...etc. Since there are so many variables in this "experiment", there are a lot of alternative answers to the one answer you have chosen.

That said, there is another issue with your argument, since astrology has very much been used in the past and in the present, to predict events, and sometimes with startling success. As lilly stated about Lilly : the astrologer Lilly very much used astrology to predict an event, not a meaning. And he was very accurate about the event, according to all the records we have today.

Personally, I think astrology can be used to predict "probabilities" of events. And the more the astrologer knows about the person, the more accurate they can predict this "probability". However, once the person understands the energies that lead to the probable event, that person can take action in their life to use the energies to change the event, if they wish.

Looking at the astro-probabilities,

Tim
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Last edited by wilsontc; 07-08-2009 at 08:54 PM.
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  #58  
Unread 07-08-2009, 08:59 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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Originally Posted by wilsontc View Post
Hey! No fair!

.......................................

Tim
Well, your most recent post ignores many things I've already said in this thread...

Like:

It doesn't matter, scientifically, how many pluses are scored for a theory; if there is one minus, the theory is in grave jeopardy...

Plus, you seem to keep forgetting that I used rigorous scientific interview procedures with those two men--I wasn't trying to predict anything; I was gathering their reactions to dates I set before them; so, any discussion about my "attempts at prediction" are entirely beside the point...
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  #59  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:03 PM
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agree to disagree, to amzolt

amzolt,

You said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
It doesn't matter, scientifically, how many pluses are scored for a theory; if there is one minus, the theory is in grave jeopardy...I used rigorous scientific interview procedures...I wasn't trying to predict anything
We'll have to agree to disagree, then! I think the scientific method has to do with proving theories, not with disproving theories. Since you weren't trying to prove anything, you weren't being scientific ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method ). And (as mentioned) one "minus" does not eliminate an entire theory in science, because there are "random error" issues. The scientist, when they find that their theory is not proven by the test data, redoes the test to see whether or not there was some kind of "random error". If the theory is again proven they do the test a few more times just to be certain.

All this aside, maybe the issue is simply language. If we say that "meanings" and "events" are the same thing...the problem goes away!

Looking for balance,

Tim
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  #60  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:10 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

Quote:
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Well, your most recent post ignores many things I've already said in this thread...
Actually, I think several people have tried to listen very fairly to your points. Both EJ and Tim have been respectful, polite, and from where I sit both have listened carefully to you.

Not once have you addressed the point about exact birthtimes being all but impossible to prove.

You are expecting us to accept, on faith, that the two men you interviewed were born at exactly the same time, the same minute. Even if both men could prove identical recorded birthtimes, on birth certificates, this still assumes that those recorded time are 100% accurate, and that is something we will never know.

Please correct me if I am in error, but I believe the idea that events predicted will be the same, using two different charts, assumes that they are identical, meaning absolutely NO difference in Ascendant.

If there is even the tiniest difference in Ascendant, thus changing the cusps of all houses even the smallest amount, theoretically the charts are not the same.

I am not debating the prediction of events. I'll let other people decide whether or not it can be done.

I am debating your your assumption that your own data is completely reliable.
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  #61  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:36 PM
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Re: agree to disagree, to amzolt

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We'll have to agree to disagree, then!
ok, we'll agree to disagree...
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  #62  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:39 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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Not once have you addressed the point about exact birthtimes being all but impossible to prove.
.......................
I am debating your your assumption that your own data is completely reliable.
But, I have addressed that point...

Go ahead and debate my "assumption"... I was there and had 25 years of astrological study behind me when the interviews happened... Now I have 40 years of experience; so, debate what you call my "assumptions" all you want... I know what I know.
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  #63  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:46 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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But, I have addressed that point...

Go ahead and debate my "assumption"... I was there and had 25 years of astrological study behind me when the interviews happened... Now I have 40 years of experience; so, debate what you call my "assumptions" all you want... I know what I know.
I'm not debating your assumption that both men were born at exactly the same time, the same minute. I am suggesting that this is impossible to prove. You were not there at both births. There is no one who can verify that both men were born the same minute.

I am not debating your ability as an astrologer, nor am I debating your honestly.

My point is that I don't think we can verify the exact moment of birth unless we are there personally to see the birth and record the time.

I'm not being impolite, and I'm not being arrogant or condescending. If you don't agree with my point, we simply don't agree.
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  #64  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:51 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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My point is that I don't think we can verify the exact moment of birth unless we are there personally to see the birth and record the time.
Well, maybe "we" can't verify the exact birth times but "I" did--fact, and not so hard for an experienced astrologer...

Quote:
Originally Posted by gaer View Post
I'm not being impolite, and I'm not being arrogant or condescending. If you don't agree with my point, we simply don't agree.
Then, we simply don't agree...
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  #65  
Unread 07-08-2009, 10:56 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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Well, maybe "we" can't verify the exact birth times but "I" did--fact, and not so hard for an experienced astrologer...
Are you implying that you "verified" the exact time by some rectification technique?
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  #66  
Unread 07-08-2009, 11:04 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

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Are you implying that you "verified" the exact time by some rectification technique?
A modified form of "on-the-fly" rectification (the aspect was a Saturn transit so time was "slow") but also more common sense methods of verification that aided the effort--nurses' interviews, public records, psychological analysis, and family memories...

The cumulative accuracy of birth time, considering the speed of Saturn and other supporting aspects, was within three seconds...
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  #67  
Unread 07-09-2009, 02:07 AM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

Ok, so now I feel totally justified in my initial skepticism! As far as i'm concerned, Astrology is not and never was a *science*.William Lilly refers to it as an *art*.The drawing up of a chart does require the application of some science (not rocket science! but not a *piece of cake* either!)..As much of astrology involves the skill of integrating and interpreting information, often the accuracy of the interpretation depends wholly on the astrologer's ability to do this.

Theres an inherent contradiction in what you are doing here Amzolt:
On the one hand you are claiming to have *disproven* a theory using anecdotal information.A conversation with 2 guys does not constitute the application of scientific principles!
If you really wanted to demonstrate your point, you could have posted the data, written an analysis of the charts and finished up with a *logical* conclusion.(Or allowed we poor deluded mortals to reach our own conclusions.)

You proved my point. A time difference of 3 seconds makes a difference.A time difference of 0.0003 seconds would also make a difference-its just that we arent precise enough in our measurements yet to utilise that information.
I am skeptical of *rectified* charts because their accuracy is solely based on the Astrologer's subjective interpretation of events and the astrological mirrors of those events.The skill of the astrologer becomes even more key. Plenty of room for error there!.
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  #68  
Unread 07-09-2009, 02:32 AM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

Just a note about science and statistics.

In science, a "law" is invariably true, such that one countrary incident could disprove it. If we think of the law of gravity as it applies to planet Earth, and Newton was supposedly impressed by apples falling down off the tree; a "law" of gravity could be disproved if we found one instance of apples falling up. Theories are believed to be invariably true statements, but they often involve really complex phenomena (like evolution of plant and animals species) or there is some barrier to proving theories conclusively (like scientist weren't around during the Jurassic). So they are more tentative.

Statisics, on the other hand, works with probabilities. This means that a correlation between two variables can be highly significant, and yet not occur 100% of the time. The correlation between two variables can be significant if it occurs with a frequency demonstrably above the level of random chance.

So, for example, if I say that people with Mercury in Gemini [variable one] score highly on IQ tests [variable 2] then this is a proposition that presumably I could falsify or support by applying a statistical test. It doesn't mean that 100% of people with Mercury in Gemini have to be at the high end of the IQ scale.
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Unread 07-09-2009, 07:49 AM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt
.....I didn't and don't want to get into a debate. Is it possible in this forum to share experience without hairsplitting debate?
Yet, we now seem to have a debate Amzolt.........focused on the atomsplitting world of science.

Can we discuss the points I raised earlier now?........Or is the debate confined to what "you know you know"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lillyjc
.......Ok, so now I feel totally justified in my initial skepticism!
Can't apologise too much for my error on that one, Lilly..........Thought I knew what I knew, but I was mistaken

EJ
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Unread 07-09-2009, 12:18 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

In his book, The Celestine Prophecy, James Redfield identified four types of "control dramas" used subconsciously by people to steal psychological energy from others. One of these was "The Aloof", of which he said (amongst other things) :-

Quote:
.....In conversation with The Aloof, we cannot get a straight answer....He is distant, detached, cryptic in his responses.....We have to ask follow-up questions, even for the simplest of enquiries......He constantly creates a vague aura, forcing us to pour energy into digging to get information normally shared in a casual manner.....When we do this, we are intensely focusing on his world.......giving him the boost of energy he desires....He constantly draws us back into interaction, to keep the energy flowing his way.
Perhaps one of the men involved in your research was an "Aloof", Amzolt?.....For example, both men might actually have been on a nudist beach for the first time but one was playing games with you in the hope that you'd ask him follow-up questions to get to the truth.

Last edited by EJ53; 07-10-2009 at 05:30 AM.
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  #71  
Unread 07-09-2009, 12:53 PM
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Re: other variables, to amzolt

Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
A modified form of "on-the-fly" rectification (the aspect was a Saturn transit so time was "slow") but also more common sense methods of verification that aided the effort--nurses' interviews, public records, psychological analysis, and family memories...

The cumulative accuracy of birth time, considering the speed of Saturn and other supporting aspects, was within three seconds...
So, you say that events cannot be predicted by using astrology, but you are perfectly comfortable rectifying using events?

Also, since you mention public records, can you point us toward those public references so that we may also examine and judge their accuracy?

Of course, we haven't seen any actual charts yet, so that might be wishful thinking on my part.

If one makes assertions, one should be able to back them up by providing verifiable sources.
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Unread 07-09-2009, 03:00 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

Since so many in this thread have ignored what I actually said and, after repeated attempts to explain, still can't hear what I'm saying, I leave this discussion with but one remark: my original post...
Quote:
Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
This may be really hard for some folks to believe, but here it is: Astrology does not, will not, and never has predicted events.

"What?!"

Yes. It's the absolute truth, even if some astrologer "predicted" something for you. If an astrologer tells you something is going to happen, don't you think that, if it does, there may just be a bit of self-fulfillment in that?

What astrology does predict or reveal is Meaning.

"O.K. What if an astrologer says some event happened in your past, and, in fact, it did happen?"

Believe it or not, what happened is that the astrologer saw a meaning in the chart and made a very good guess at the exact event. Here's some proof of that:

Many years ago, I had the opportunity to talk to two men, born of different mothers but at the same time at the same hospital. Since they had the same chart you'd think they would have had the same events happening in their lives, right? Well, all it takes is one contrary occurrence of something to disprove a theory and here it is:

There was a strong indicator in their charts at a certain time, and I asked the first man what happened. He said his father had died. I asked the other man, with the same chart, what happened, and he said he'd been on his first nude beach...

Obviously, the same chart had shown two very different events! Then, I asked the first man (by the way, I interviewed these men separately), "What did it mean when your father died?" He said that he'd felt like he'd had shackles removed (his father had been rather authoritarian). I asked the other man, "What did it mean to be on your first nude beach?" He said that he had dropped his shackles...

They used exactly the same, and not so common, word to describe what two very different events meant...

So, astrology doesn't predict events, it predicts meanings.
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Unread 07-09-2009, 04:11 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amzolt
.....I leave this discussion with but one remark: my original post...
And that post says only that "Astrology does not, will not, and never has predicted events".........(with which I agree)

It does not say anywhere that "specific events cannot be predicted"........An assertion you make later in the thread without (imo) any supporting evidence/explanation.....(And with which I strongly disagree).

Last edited by EJ53; 07-10-2009 at 05:48 AM.
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Unread 07-09-2009, 07:42 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

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Originally Posted by amzolt View Post
Since so many in this thread have ignored what I actually said and, after repeated attempts to explain, still can't hear what I'm saying, I leave this discussion with but one remark: my original post...
No, we've understood precisely what you said and haven't ignored your points - merely questioned them.

Perhaps a bit of clarity on all our parts might have made this a more interesting discussion.
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Unread 07-09-2009, 11:19 PM
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Re: Astrology Predicts Meanings, Not Events

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No, we've understood precisely what you said and haven't ignored your points - merely questioned them.

Perhaps a bit of clarity on all our parts might have made this a more interesting discussion.
Frank, I have to agree with you. A number of people have tried very hard to clarify the issues, among them Aquarius7000, Tim and Waybread. Waybread's points about laws, theories and statistics, I believe, are especially important when discussing the idea of one "miss" disproving an idea, technique, and so on.

To me the problem originates in defining the ability to predict events as a "theory". By so defining it, we are limited to discussing event prediction within this very confined or limiting definition. We put prediction into a "box".

When scientists set about attempting to prove or disprove things, they have very definite, precise methodology. The moment we talk about "scientific method", we have to be very careful that we adhere *to* the scientific method.

In my opinion, stating that two people are born at the same time, within seconds, then stating that this has been "proved" by rectifying the birth times, throws so many factors into the "equation" that in the end it is very little about science and very much about the "art of astrology", which many of us if not most of us agree can never be precisely defined.
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