Arabic Parts in Hellenistic Astrology

Senecar said:

When I said 70% accuracy prediction from my own 10 horary readings weren't meant to be any hint of superiority issue.

But when you make a prediction, which we all do be it astrologer or not, in YES NO questions, statistically you get 50% accuracy even if you toss the coin for it.

So, with aid of Horary Astrology, it was quite normal to get about 70% of accuracy from the readings = although it is 10 readings, that shouldn't imply the accuracy percentage is meaningless. If the horary astrology were not able to aid at all in any ways, then no matter how little or many readings you do, the percentage will still reflect the case.

From that, my point was, for a knowledgeable and long experienced astrologer with all highly complex traditional time lord calculation techniques and theories, you would expect him to get way over 50% accuracy in his prediction. And I would reckon should it not be 80% even not 90% of accuracy ?

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Senecar said:

I was a bit taken back to read that Peto's accuracy on his astrological readings based on the techniques he was using was only 30-40% = that's just way too low = it is even lower than tossing a coin.????

I feel that my logic on this point is perfect realistic and practical = nothing to do with superiority or bragging as peto tries to make out.

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Dirius said:

Depends, as I said before, not all questions have the same level of difficulty. Some are not "yes/no" and are about specifics. Some questions have 3 or 4 different possible outcomes. So maybe you have 9 out of 10 "yes/no" questions, while 1 out of 10 "yes, no, half yes, not now, etc" questions.

What I mean to say is that you can't claim statistics by ignoring the small pool sample you are working with. That is not how mathematical probability is measured.



Natal reading is different from horary. In horary, most of the times you work with querent and quesited (2 houses, 2 planets) and sometimes a 3rd related house and planet. In birth chart techniques, you are dealing with the whole chart. Thus the variables that are included are much larger, and the questions you analyse are usually complex (not simple "yes/no").

Furthermore, he is referring to techniques devised by Valens. Some of them are compiled from previous authors, and many are incomplete.

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Senecar said:

I don't agree that every Horary reading is easy and simple.
Some horary could be tricky = such as locating lost item or people, or
finding culprits of crimes or missing people or planes
= these could be difficult to come to accurate readings and answers.

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horary questions on finding culprits of crimes or missing people or planes
are rare on our online forum
although they do sometimes occur
and furthermore
you said that your experience with horary is only since January 2018
and is the experience you gained on our amateur online horary board
where the most common horary questions are on relationships
and Oddity who has decades of experience
clearly stated regarding the horary board on our forum
that

Oddity said:

Horary is fairly heavily weighted to a 'no' answer.

People mostly don't get what they want in life.

That being said, I could probably go through
the relationships section of the horary forum here
and hit 90% accuracy without even looking at the charts.

I don't think that'd say much about me as an astrologer, though.

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Senecar said:

When I said 70% accuracy prediction from my own 10 horary readings weren't meant to be any hint of superiority issue.

But when you make a prediction, which we all do be it astrologer or not, in YES NO questions, statistically you get 50% accuracy even if you toss the coin for it.

So, with aid of Horary Astrology, it was quite normal to get about 70% of accuracy from the readings = although it is 10 readings, that shouldn't imply the accuracy percentage is meaningless. If the horary astrology were not able to aid at all in any ways, then no matter how little or many readings you do, the percentage will still reflect the case.

From that, my point was, for a knowledgeable and long experienced astrologer with all highly complex traditional time lord calculation techniques and theories, you would expect him to get way over 50% accuracy in his prediction. And I would reckon should it not be 80% even not 90% of accuracy ?

I was a bit taken back to read that Peto's accuracy on his astrological readings based on the techniques he was using was only 30-40% = that's just way too low = it is even lower than tossing a coin.????

I feel that my logic on this point is perfect realistic and practical = nothing to do with superiority or bragging as peto tries to make out.

Anyhow, back to Arabic Parts, Robert Zoller says in his book "Arabic Parts in Astrology" that the true origin of Arabic Parts are from the very ancient times of Mesopotamian and Babylonian times, but officially it appears for the first time as recorded source, in Ptolemy's Tetrabiblios and Manilus Firmicus's works later, then other medieval Arabian astrologers picked them up to elaborate further.

Zoller is adamant that Ptolemy got the information from the Mesopotamians and Babylonians and from that, wrote his Tetrabiblios.

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Senecar said:

And not all natal charts are all complicated either
= because there are so many charts available on line
and in the books, if you done 1000s of readings
it could be quite simple and speedy.

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You continue to ignore imporant factor that Horary and Natal
are completely different methodologies
crucially, Horary has a known TIME of asking a question
whereas
natal charts often require rectification and testing
and accurate natal delination
simply cannot occur given an unreliable time of birth
which is not an issue with Horary

many charts in books are of celebrities
who keep their information private
so there is no known reliable time of birth
Hillary Cllinton is a good example

waybread said:

I can see this thread has moved on, but my computer was in the shop for the past two days.

Petosiris, sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but really, these "mirror, mirror on the wall" ripostes are unhelpful. My thoughts on the origins of thematic house meanings are not "absolutely fanciful" or straw man tactics, but are based upon research that you apparently have not undertaken. I should start a separate thread on it, probably at Skyscript, where I note that you are also a member. Once I can find the time, it would take me a couple of days to get all of my notes organized, and to catch up on any late-breaking publications that might address this topic.

I've told you several times how busy I am of late, and this particular thread is about lots, so please be patient.

Where do you see me "trying to cast doubt on traditional astrology"? I have a lot of interest in the origins of horoscopic astrology. We also must recognize that, during the Hellenistic period, there wasn't just one astrology. On your sidereal thread, you yourself have noted signal differences between Ptolemy and the siderealists. In ancient times there were different "schools" of astrology ranging from practical hands-on professionals with clienteles, to Aristotelians, to court astrologers, to Hermeticists, to practitioners of Mithraism, to street fair astrologers, to whatever other dubious claimants the literary source authors complained about, as giving professional astrologers a bad name.

You seemed to denigrate Manilius as a poet, yet he was deeply convinced of the sacred nature of astrology; and in his day, poetry was deemed the proper way to write about the gods and the heavens. He wrote (3:30-35)

"I must wrestle with numerals and names of things unheard of, with the seasons, the changing fortunes and movements of the sky, with the signs' variations, and even with the portions of their portions. Ah, how great a task it is to put into words what passes understanding! Ah, how great to tell in fitting poetry, and this to yoke to a fixed metre!" (Goold translation, Loeb Classical Library, pp. 166-7.)

This doesn't mean that Manilius imparted no useful astrological information. Book 3 contains a fair bit of practical information on such topics as the length of time signs take to rise in different locations, length-of-life calculations, and the significance of the "tropic" (equinox and solstice) signs

So far as the Arabic parts are concerned, they were (in English translation) called "lots," as obviously the rise of Muslim astrology had not yet occurred. Manilius discussed the lots in the context of the uniqueness they imparted to each horoscope, focusing on the lot of fortune (3:96ff) The lot based on one's ascendant, moon, and sun position, and birth location deeply personalized the horoscope. The athla (locations, "abodes") for the lots do not seem to correlate with today's house or sign characteristics, however. (See: Dorian Greenbaum, The Daimon in Hellenistic Astrology, pp. 290-296, google book.) Manilius distinguishes between day and night nativities (sect) for calculating the part of fortune.

Greenbaum argued that the way Manilius described the locations of the part of fortune suggested their use in both natal and electional astrology.

I'd be hard-pressed to write up this material in hexameters!

The Astronomica of Manilius was written ca. 10-20 CE, making it the earliest extant Hellenistic astrology book, and an important source for tracking the history of horoscopic astrology, which emerges fully-fledged in his book.

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Senecar said:

However you try to say some charts are more complicated and difficult to read
and not same as simple Horary.

From the clients point of view, it still is a reading, and
they will judge you by whether your reading was Right or Wrong.
They wouldn't be interested on how complicated
and difficult the readings were.
They simply want the answers = Correct ones.

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and the clients of our online amateur horary forum
who ask the same questions repetitively week after week
if not day after day
or even on the same day
cannot be compared to the clients of experienced horary professionals
When one consults a reputable horary professional
that's very different
from the kinds of "correct answers" that are even possible
given the lack of consistency
evident on our own amateur horary board
which no one claims is on a par with a professional horary reading

JUPITERASC said:

You continue to ignore imporant factor that Horary and Natal
are completely different methodologies
crucially, Horary has a known TIME of asking a question
whereas
natal charts often require rectification and testing
and accurate natal delination
simply cannot occur given an unreliable time of birth
which is not an issue with Horary

many charts in books are of celebrities
who keep their information private
so there is no known reliable time of birth
Hillary Cllinton is a good example

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Senecar said:

There are TIMING related Horary too = I have seen horaries such as "When will such and such happen?" = when will I move to other countries, when will I move to new house? when will I get my money? when will I get married when will I have new girl friend / boy friend etc. And you can predict the timing using Moon's angle to the questId significators. I am sure there are other methods calculating timing.


And if you are directly related to the quesitd, you could ask time of death, war or other questions relating to a countries too according to Horary rules.

You totally ignored above facts?

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the TIMING I refer to and that you have clearly completely misunderstood
is the timing of the chart itself, whether natal or horary

i.e.
Horary charts are necessarily timed to exactitude
because simply
that is the basis of horary
without a time for the question
there is no horary chart
I simply highlight
that without a RELIABLE TIME OF BIRTH
there is no reliable natal chart

JUPITERASC said:

the TIMING I refer to and that you have clearly completely misunderstood
is the timing of the chart itself, whether natal or horary

i.e.
Horary charts are necessarily timed to exactitude
because simply
that is the basis of horary
without a time for the question
there is no horary chart
I simply highlight
that without a RELIABLE TIME OF BIRTH
there is no reliable natal chart

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Senecar said:

OK about unreliable time of birth issues in nativity
= so you must think that nativity readings
should only be done when you know the data are 100% correct
= be sensible and selective
on what method of delineation you must choose for the reaings.
Every case different, and you just have to be flexible
to be a good astrologer?

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there are many incidents on our forum
of members discovering their official time of birth
is completely different from the time they thought it was
after they found it had been documented somewhere unexpectedly
and
previously the member had relied on hearsay from family members

and so obviously
if the data provided for a nativity chart is incorrect

then
it is not possible to get delination that applies to the person who provided the wrong date/time of birth of that nativity

in contrast
I highlight
that an horary chart is TIMED TO EXACTITUDE
because an horary chart quite simply is based on time of the question
without a timed time of the question
there is no horary chart

Senecar said:

If you are not sure about the accuracy BoT in nativity chart, then
you could still use ASC chart (I forgot what it is called), but
it still gives you reasonable accurate readings for the native.

There are ways to rectify birth charts without exact BoT.

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Rectification Tips - Verifying Ascendant/Descendant/MC/IC angles

JUPITERASC said:

there are many incidents on our forum
of members discovering their official time of birth
is completely different from the time they thought it was
after they found it had been documented somewhere unexpectedly
and
previously the member had relied on hearsay from family members

and so obviously
if the data provided for a nativity chart is incorrect

then
it is not possible to get delination that applies to the person who provided the wrong date/time of birth of that nativity

in contrast
I highlight
that an horary chart is TIMED TO EXACTITUDE
because an horary chart quite simply is based on time of the question
without a timed time of the question
there is no horary chart



good that you understood, exactly what I have said all along

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Senecar said:

Not sure why you had to raise the issue with Nativity chart
with incorrect BoT in accuracy debate.
Not really related topic at all.

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you said you only read some astrology since January 2018
and have no practice with natal charts
and only have experience with ten horary charts
so it is worth mentioning for any beginners reading this thread
that
fact is
the accuracy of the Ascendant in Horary is unquestionable
whereas obviously
the accuracy of Ascendant in natal charts
is questioned as a matter of course

Senecar said:

But well, I have been saying the points
all along from the start
and thought you were in some kind of confusion

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petosiris said:

Anyways, back on the topic, Senecar
you have Hellenistic Astrology by Chris Brennan.
He has important information on the Lots between pg. 511 and 524.
I think it is going to confirm my first comment that answered your question
and even give you a few formulas used by Dorotheus and others.
He also talks about the debate about the Lot of Fortune calculation.

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JUPITERASC said:

you said you only read some astrology since January 2018
and have no practice with natal charts
and only have experience with ten horary charts
so it is worth mentioning for any beginners reading this thread
that
fact is
the accuracy of the Ascendant in Horary is unquestionable
whereas obviously
the accuracy of Ascendant in natal charts
is questioned as a matter of course

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JUPITERASC said:

useful then if you would reference those points
because you seem to be quoting my comments rather than your own

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JUPITERASC said:

Senecar may not have read that page reference

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Senecar said:

I have been just pointing out your unclear and cloudy points

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Senecar said:

I do have the book, and I did read the LOTS chapter

Your guess seems always wrong

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Guesses have a 50/50 chance of accuracy
questions that are anwered by that LOTS chapter
are asked by OP
so seemed obvious they may not have read it