Random presidential thoughts

waybread

waybread

Well-known member
Frankly, I would think a multi-billionaire could afford a better haircut. What is that comb-over hiding? A cranial deformity? Scars from life-threatening brain surgery? A secret wish to wear a toupee? Or just really bad taste? Any one of these could disqualify someone from serving as POTUS. At least if you follow the alt-right's line of reasoning.
 

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muchacho

Well-known member
Professor Norpoth: The Primary Model

My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton

"Trump has trailed Clinton in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics [...] So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president? For starters, pre-election polls have selected the wrong candidate many times [...] My advice: Beware of pollsters bearing forecasts, especially anyone trying to peek into the future, especially those with money to bet.

The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries [...] Although some experts claim primary votes have no bearing on general elections, the fact is that primaries prove uncanny in forecasting the winner in November [...] In general, the party with the stronger primary candidate wins the general election [...] This year, Trump has wound up as the stronger of the two presidential nominees. He won many more primaries than did Clinton."

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/my-m...-chance-of-beating-hillary-clinton-1.12102905
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waybread

waybread

Well-known member
I'm so glad you posted that, muchacho. Now that Trump's election is pre-ordained and inevitable, his supporters can stay home on election day.

But the part that I really loved about Norpoth's model (which I looked up) was that after two terms of one party in the White House, the "pendulum" tends to swing to the opposite party. Normally you wouldn't need a Ph. D. to work this one out, except that Obama is now comparatively popular; and Donald Trump has Republicans so uneasy that some will shift their vote to Clinton or simply not vote for the top of the ticket. Moreover, African and Hispanic Americans are now a more powerful voting force than they were in the past; and with the exception of Cuban Americans, most tend to vote Democratic. Florida, as you know, is a huge prize and a swing state, with 29 electoral votes.

I have no crystal ball, but Trump is into some heavy Mars transit weather in mid-month, as Mars hits his moon and opposes his sun-NN-Uranus. He tends to shoot from the lip when annoyed, so we'll see what the next few weeks bring him.
 
aquarius7000

aquarius7000

Well-known member
"A federal judge released an enormous collection of documents this week regarding an ongoing lawsuit over Trump University, one of those shady “seminar” organizations that are really just get-rich-quick scams. Trump fought tooth and nail to keep those documents from getting released, and now that it’s happening, he’s hustling as hard as he can to discredit the judge with nakedly racist appeals..."

http://www.salon.com/2016/06/01/for...story_of_real_estate_grifts_is_the_real_deal/
 
aquarius7000

aquarius7000

Well-known member
JUPITERASC said:
qfhGfaq.jpg
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:p:D:p:D:p
He’s made many different—and sometimes contradictory—statements about the war over the years.
This article originally appeared on Time.com...The long list of Trump comments on Iraq seemingly begins on Sept. 11, 2002, just weeks before the invasion vote, when Trump was asked by radio host Howard Stern whether he supported going into Iraq. “Yeah, I guess so,” he replied.:p:D:p:D:p
http://fortune.com/2016/09/09/donald-trump-iraq-war-claim/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE
 
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muchacho

Well-known member
waybread said:
I'm so glad you posted that, muchacho. Now that Trump's election is pre-ordained and inevitable, his supporters can stay home on election day.

But the part that I really loved about Norpoth's model (which I looked up) was that after two terms of one party in the White House, the "pendulum" tends to swing to the opposite party. Normally you wouldn't need a Ph. D. to work this one out, except that Obama is now comparatively popular; and Donald Trump has Republicans so uneasy that some will shift their vote to Clinton or simply not vote for the top of the ticket. Moreover, African and Hispanic Americans are now a more powerful voting force than they were in the past; and with the exception of Cuban Americans, most tend to vote Democratic. Florida, as you know, is a huge prize and a swing state, with 29 electoral votes.

I have no crystal ball, but Trump is into some heavy Mars transit weather in mid-month, as Mars hits his moon and opposes his sun-NN-Uranus. He tends to shoot from the lip when annoyed, so we'll see what the next few weeks bring him.
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Well, according to the Primary Model, voting for HRC is pointless now and voting for DJT is a safe bet.

What is interesting about the Primary Model is that he made that prediction in March 2016 already. And what this model is basically implying is that the time between the nominations and election day doesn't really matter. Which is a rather provocative statement, especially for the pundits and pollsters.

Waybread, I've seen a lot of predictions and I'm a bit skeptical about purely astrological predictions and would rather suggest to combine it with other methods like the Primary Model etc. That way predictions will be at least in part based on something real and tangible.

Also, I don't think talking points actually matter. What matters is how people feel about the candidates, which somehow the Primary Model is implying as well.
 
waybread

waybread

Well-known member
muchacho said:
Well, according to the Primary Model, voting for HRC is pointless now and voting for DJT is a safe bet.

What is interesting about the Primary Model is that he made that prediction in March 2016 already. And what this model is basically implying is that the time between the nominations and election day doesn't really matter. Which is a rather provocative statement, especially for the pundits and pollsters.

Waybread, I've seen a lot of predictions and I'm a bit skeptical about purely astrological predictions and would rather suggest to combine it with other methods like the Primary Model etc. That way predictions will be at least in part based on something real and tangible.

Also, I don't think talking points actually matter. What matters is how people feel about the candidates, which somehow the Primary Model is implying as well.
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muchacho, have you seen these predictions by professional astrologers?http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9205

Astrologers cited are 28 predicting Clinton wins, and 8 predicting Trump wins.

I could dredge up other predictive models which support a Clinton win.

What sometimes bothers me about the political analysts' models, is that they get a little woo-woo, rather than indicating how a particular type of event, like winning a primary, realistically translates into a win.

Since Dr. Noel is not Clinton's personal physician, I'll pass. How would the alt-right have handled Eisenhower, FDR, JFK, and so on? FDR could barely stand or walk due to polio that left his legs paralyzed. Eisenhower had a 4-pack per day smoking habit at one point. JFK had such a bad back that sitting in a rocking chair became his trademark. Nu??
 
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Julia Karmic Astrology

Well-known member
waybread said:
muchacho, have you seen these predictions by professional astrologers?http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9205

Astrologers cited are 28 predicting Clinton wins, and 8 predicting Trump wins.

I could dredge up other predictive models which support a Clinton win.

What sometimes bothers me about the political analysts' models, is that they get a little woo-woo, rather than indicating how a particular type of event, like winning a primary, realistically translates into a win.

Since Dr. Noel is not Clinton's personal physician, I'll pass. How would the alt-right have handled Eisenhower, FDR, JFK, and so on? FDR could barely stand or walk due to polio that left his legs paralyzed. Eisenhower had a 4-pack per day smoking habit at one point. JFK had such a bad back that sitting in a rocking chair became his trademark. Nu??
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Waybread,

Not to get "woo woo" on you, but some of the reputable (high hit rate beyond chance) political psychic community have been strongly getting neither a Trump nor Hillary win. And they have reasonable scenarios to account for this.

Julia
 
aquarius7000

aquarius7000

Well-known member
Julia Karmic Astrology said:
Waybread,

Not to get "woo woo" on you, but some of the reputable (high hit rate beyond chance) political psychic community have been strongly getting neither a Trump nor Hillary win. And they have reasonable scenarios to account for this.

Julia
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Psychic community? I am interested. Could you be kind enough to cite me some examples here by posting the relevant links? Thanks
 
J

Julia Karmic Astrology

Well-known member
aquarius7000 said:
Psychic community? I am interested. Could you be kind enough to cite me some examples here by posting the relevant links? Thanks
Click to expand...

The link below is from Matthew Ward, a very popular and respected channel.
He predicted Obama's win when not many others thought he could become president.
I cannot post the relevant paragraphs as they exceed the TOS forum word count.
But look at the first couple of paragraphs.

This is consistent with private groups of very successful political psychics who no longer publish their work, but convene on an informal basis. This is based upon my personal knowledge of such groups.

http://www.matthewbooks.com/august-19-2016/

Julia
 
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