Will Trump win Iowa's causus over Ted Cruz?

Bit of a political junky and love to test horary's ability to call such contests without being personally connected to any party. The caucus is Monday and I believe if Cruz can't stop Trump by winning this state, then Trump will go on to win New Hampshire then South Carolina and then there will be no stopping him from taking the nomination.

I like Trump but rather not see him the winner in Iowa because of reasons above, so I give him the 7th house cusp. Moon is applying a square to Venus (ruler of caucuses) in 5 days. Mercury rules 7th house and since Trump's ruler is Mercury by his Sun in Gemini. Given these facts, I feel the chart is radical. Mercury is conj the star Vega which gives one luck in politics, it's in the 11th house of good fortune. It's the house of friends and supporters which Trump has shown to keep no matter what, Cruz's ruler Jupiter is in 7th house and conj the star Denebola (Saturn/Venus) is unfortunate, ruler of 4th house (end of matter) is Mercury.

Given this chart, I believe it shows Trump wins. Hope I'm wrong and I can't get an accurate answer with horary.

Moondance

I don't think large-scale political questions of this nature are legitimate horary questions for reasons I tried to set forth in my posts on this thread: http://www.astrologyweekly.com/forum/showthread.php?t=86635

Yes, I've followed that conversation closely. I was involved in debating this subject several years ago on Sky Script. You put a link to Deb's opinion, which has changed over the years to accepting the possibility if the question is asked honestly and that the astrologer can prove the chart's radicality.

I don't ask this type question often cause it doesn't usually move me to do so. Today it did. I considered the wisdom of posting it knowing many astrologers don't find it a legitimate question for horary but I thought Deb's criteria was being followed. If that's not the case it's fair to point to my error.

In some ways, how is seeing the winner of a caucus different than seeing who will win the Super Bowl or other contests that lots of people are drawing horaries?

Moondance

It is no different. I believe them to be equally invalid.

This isn't to argue against other forms of predictive astrology, such as mundane, natal, and event charts, that have different rules than horary. See, for example, this thread: http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=9001

Let's suppose the chance of correctly casting an interpreting a horary chart is 50% for a yes-or-no question. Or in the cause of Trump being so far ahead in the polls, it is greater than 50%. Do you see the problem?

See Deborah Houlding's view on political horary charts, from August of last year: http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=8841

Moondancing said:

Yes, I've followed that conversation closely. I was involved in debating this subject several years ago on Sky Script. You put a link to Deb's opinion, which has changed over the years to accepting the possibility if the question is asked honestly and that the astrologer can prove the chart's radicality.

I don't ask this type question often cause it doesn't usually move me to do so. Today it did. I considered the wisdom of posting it knowing many astrologers don't find it a legitimate question for horary but I thought Deb's criteria was being followed. If that's not the case it's fair to point to my error.

In some ways, how is seeing the winner of a caucus different than seeing who will win the Super Bowl or other contests that lots of people are drawing horaries?

Moondance

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Asking political questions of this nature is perfectly valid. They are nothing more than another contest type of chart. Besides, despite the fact that one may be asking out of "curiosity" the head of state of your country will have consequence in your life, thus its perfectly valid thing to ask.

The real problem lies in identifying which house ruler to apply to the candidate. And this is something that in political charts I've always found hard. I've tried a few over the years, the only ones I could cast correctly were the ones I cast for the candidate I supported (because he was 1st house, as my interest was aligned with his).

To me honestly casting a chart in which we are not sure which house represents the person, ends up being rather pointless, because regardless of what the chart is saying, we may not be able to understand to begin with. This is why I think one should always cast a chart for the person you are supporting, because that will always show up as the ruler of the 1st.

Let me show you what I mean:

If he is the 7th:

- He is Mercury in the 11th, not a bad placement, applying conjunction to Venus? (haven't check if it perfects or not).

- The opponent is the 1st then, in detriment in the 7th.

So if trump is represented by the 7th, he should be the winner.

However stating this is kind of redundant, given that the 7th represents someone and someone is going to be the winner. So casting this type of charts doesn't really bring us much.

Dirius said:

The real problem lies in identifying which house ruler to apply to the candidate. And this is something that in political charts I've always found hard. I've tried a few over the years, the only ones I could cast correctly were the ones I cast for the candidate I supported (because he was 1st house, as my interest was aligned with his).

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The real problem is not describing the ruler. For example, Jupiter rules the first and the opposing candidate. Jupiter signifies Senators, Cruz is a Senator. When I listen to him he sounds like a preacher then I learned his father was a preacher and this brings us back to Jupiter.

As I pointed out, Trump's signif. is Mercury in this chart and his natal chart. He is a "merchant who no man exceeds him in a way of trade or invention of new ways to obtain wealth" Lilly pg. 77. No difficulty here understanding what planet is describing who, imo.

To me honestly casting a chart in which we are not sure which house represents the person, ends up being rather pointless, because regardless of what the chart is saying, we may not be able to understand to begin with. This is why I think one should always cast a chart for the person you are supporting, because that will always show up as the ruler of the 1st.

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It doesn't matter if the chart is radical because both rulers WILL describe the people involved. And I tried to show why Mercury signf Trump and I didn't just pick nilly willy but hopefully my further description will show my thinking to be in accord with horary rules.

Let me show you what I mean:

If he is the 7th:

- He is Mercury in the 11th, not a bad placement, applying conjunction to Venus? (haven't check if it perfects or not).

- The opponent is the 1st then, in detriment in the 7th.

So if trump is represented by the 7th, he should be the winner.

However stating this is kind of redundant, given that the 7th represents someone and someone is going to be the winner. So casting this type of charts doesn't really bring us much.

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To me the beauty of the horary chart is the story it tells so accurately. I marvel at the fact Mercury is conj. the star Vega (luck in politics) in the 11th house. He has defied all the political rules and is succeeding at bringing many supporters to his aid no matter what he says. I'm also awed by Jupiter not only being in 7th house but conj the star Denebola (Saturn/Venus). Venus signifies caucuses (taken from The Rulership Book by Rex E. Bills).

Further proof Mercury signif Trump is it being in Capricorn ruler Saturn in the 10th house, a hard worker who is determined to succeed, traditional (you always find him in a suit and tie compared to Cruz who dresses down.) Mercury sextiles Mars ruler of 2nd and in 8th, the man constantly talks about his money and success in making his money (Mercury exalts Mars).

This chart is an example of what I believe proves that horary can be used by outsiders to predict the outcome of an election. The real proof though is that other astrologers agree with your analysis and your not just living in your head. Or just picking the right/wrong answer to a yes or no question.

Moondance

Ask away, by all means-- have fun with it. But it's not a valid horary, and merely getting a correct answer for a candidate who is already leading in the polls is not confirmation that it is. It's kind of like a coin toss.

Or a misuse of the oracle.

Suppose you have 20 astrologers all asking the same question. Even suppose that all of them are skilled professionals. They will not all be asking at the same time or date. They will have different signifiers for the candidate depending upon the house they assign him to. Their charts will collectively be all over the place. How could the universe magically align to make all of them legitimate and to give the same yes-or-no answer? It can't and it won't.

Moreover, a radical horary chart depends on one's pressing imperative to know the answer. If you've lost your family dog or your partner just walked out on you, those are immediate and personal issues. Not so for Donald Trump in this case. The question is curiosity-based.

I sometimes wonder if horary astrologers who persist in supporting this type of inquiry are well enough versed in other types of astrology (mundane, event, natal charts) to undertake them. It would be an interesting comparison, to do a horary and these other types of charts, and then compare your answers.

Sometimes we know things even when we don't know things. Sometimes we're not wrong. Humans.

Could you ask the horary - will my brother's bid on the new house be beaten out?

I see no difference.

Except the question has propulsion and the single 'battle' is indicated by mars-mercury probably - at this point - 10th house placement in horary toward dispositors of whomever you want to win the Ioway caucus.

I grew up in southern calif in a town that was built by mostly Iowan immigrants. They were always All Business. They were willing or forced to give up everything, like the Okies and Southerners to come to California to find work or hope for work and a better life. Hard core group the Iowan's - most don't leave the State.

So I'd look at Iowa 1st house - the 3rd / 11th for caucus, look at your protagonist/antaganist relationships to the 10th house of a turned chart of you at 1st.

Iowa is the main story - what direction it will go - it is the stage and players are.....

Moon in electional or hoary is KEY - so look at where moon has been and where it's going - especially in relation to Iowa's 10th house and 7th.

Giving an endorsement is a verbal agreement 7th house.

I'd start there.

But, now that I re-read chart & post - I see your last words - 12th house words - "I hope I'm wrong" -

The horary will first show the answer to your hopes , then it will show the horary results of the caucus for those who dig deeper. Those who look at the 12th house of quesited to ask a question first that circumvents a direct response wanted based on 11th house hope. Neptune just passed your Asc and you let a little water out.

Trump is the 7th house open enemy of Cruz and you? You see yourself collectively. 11 th house. Ted Cruz is Saturn ruler of your 11th hopes. Saturn is bumped to 12th of Cruz chart - he's going into hiding and heading into the basement to catch that rat that has been evading him and he is rolling up his sleeves and isn't above bringing out an exterminator)

(I'm even confused by myself now. But truly your question was I hope Trump doesn't beat Cruz. So I assume you like Cruz in hope house (11th) from you as 1st house hoper?)


Tricky Tricky.

take moon for the voters
10th for success

Moondancing said:

The real problem is not describing the ruler. For example, Jupiter rules the first and the opposing candidate. Jupiter signifies Senators, Cruz is a Senator. When I listen to him he sounds like a preacher then I learned his father was a preacher and this brings us back to Jupiter.

As I pointed out, Trump's signif. is Mercury in this chart and his natal chart. He is a "merchant who no man exceeds him in a way of trade or invention of new ways to obtain wealth" Lilly pg. 77. No difficulty here understanding what planet is describing who, imo.

It doesn't matter if the chart is radical because both rulers WILL describe the people involved. And I tried to show why Mercury signf Trump and I didn't just pick nilly willy but hopefully my further description will show my thinking to be in accord with horary rules.

To me the beauty of the horary chart is the story it tells so accurately. I marvel at the fact Mercury is conj. the star Vega (luck in politics) in the 11th house. He has defied all the political rules and is succeeding at bringing many supporters to his aid no matter what he says. I'm also awed by Jupiter not only being in 7th house but conj the star Denebola (Saturn/Venus). Venus signifies caucuses (taken from The Rulership Book by Rex E. Bills).

Further proof Mercury signif Trump is it being in Capricorn ruler Saturn in the 10th house, a hard worker who is determined to succeed, traditional (you always find him in a suit and tie compared to Cruz who dresses down.) Mercury sextiles Mars ruler of 2nd and in 8th, the man constantly talks about his money and success in making his money (Mercury exalts Mars).

This chart is an example of what I believe proves that horary can be used by outsiders to predict the outcome of an election. The real proof though is that other astrologers agree with your analysis and your not just living in your head. Or just picking the right/wrong answer to a yes or no question.

Moondance

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I didn't say you were wrong, in fact the reasoning of the natural rulerships does add support to trump being the 7th.

As you wrote in your opening post, I do agree that "if you don't care about the person", you should take the 7th as his signifier, but that concept is sometimes obscure, because in many contest charts taking the 1st as the one you are asking about seems a legitimate house asignment too.

Thus that leads me to my argument: it isn't invalid, its just unsafe.

waybread said:

Moreover, a radical horary chart depends on one's pressing imperative to know the answer. If you've lost your family dog or your partner just walked out on you, those are immediate and personal issues. Not so for Donald Trump in this case. The question is curiosity-based.

I sometimes wonder if horary astrologers who persist in supporting this type of inquiry are well enough versed in other types of astrology (mundane, event, natal charts) to undertake them. It would be an interesting comparison, to do a horary and these other types of charts, and then compare your answers.

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Its not that you can't ask them.

An horary works as long as the question you ask is genuine. You can ask any sort of stuff that has some minor spark of interest from your part, even something that is not related to you.

Potentially anyone can ask things as "Will Brad and Angelina split?" which at least to me it would be a silly thing to ask, but to a person interested in celebrity gossip, while not something important, it still sparks curiosity and the need to know.

In the case of Moondance's question, I don't think it is a bad one. Politics do spark interest in everyone, even when its just a minor curiosity.

waybread said:

Ask away, by all means-- have fun with it. But it's not a valid horary, and merely getting a correct answer for a candidate who is already leading in the polls is not confirmation that it is. It's kind of like a coin toss.

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There are many variables that can turn the win to Cruz. He has a great ground game and that wins elections. Over 50% of the people polled said they'd change their vote. More than getting a answer I loved how this chart tells a story.

Or a misuse of the oracle.

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If I was using it as a coin toss then I'd agree with you but that is not where I'm coming from.

Suppose you have 20 astrologers all asking the same question. Even suppose that all of them are skilled professionals. They will not all be asking at the same time or date. They will have different signifiers for the candidate depending upon the house they assign him to. Their charts will collectively be all over the place. How could the universe magically align to make all of them legitimate and to give the same yes-or-no answer? It can't and it won't.

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Why would they all be legitimate?

Moreover, a radical horary chart depends on one's pressing imperative to know the answer. If you've lost your family dog or your partner just walked out on you, those are immediate and personal issues. Not so for Donald Trump in this case. The question is curiosity-based.

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What if it's an issue that I've studied/followed for days/weeks/months and felt intimately connected, on my terms, with the issue?

I sometimes wonder if horary astrologers who persist in supporting this type of inquiry are well enough versed in other types of astrology (mundane, event, natal charts) to undertake them. It would be an interesting comparison, to do a horary and these other types of charts, and then compare your answers.

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I read them all when it comes to presidential elections. Very talented astrologers make very compelling cases and turn out to be wrong. It's fascinating to see all the different variables they bring to the table and in the end you have a win for each candidate and the real election tells the story. I'm not sure astrology period is a good predictor of who will win. If you enjoy doing all that work to figure out if a winner, well I enjoy reading them.

Moondance

The composite USA chart compared with any of their charts would be the most intriguing to me.

Dirius said:

Its not that you can't ask them.

An horary works as long as the question you ask is genuine. You can ask any sort of stuff that has some minor spark of interest from your part, even something that is not related to you.

Potentially anyone can ask things as "Will Brad and Angelina split?" which at least to me it would be a silly thing to ask, but to a person interested in celebrity gossip, while not something important, it still sparks curiosity and the need to know.

In the case of Moondance's question, I don't think it is a bad one. Politics do spark interest in everyone, even when its just a minor curiosity.

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Of course there are back-stories to a question that move the querent into a "really, really, want to know" position. Suppose I'd bet a lot of money on Trump winning the caucus--money I couldn't afford to lose. Suppose I were a political strategist employed by the Cruz campaign, and if he lost, my job and reputation as a consultant would evaporate.

Dirius, I further take your point that if I, for whatever strange reason, develop a fanatical emotional stake in the outcome of the caucus, that too could nudge my question into the "serious intent" category.

But so far as I can see, most political horaries are not of this nature: they're curiosity-driven. And we still haven't solved the problem of popular celebrity or political types of questions: if 20 astrologers ask the same question they can't all come up with the identical correct answer.

waybread said:

Of course there are back-stories to a question that move the querent into a "really, really, want to know" position. Suppose I'd bet a lot of money on Trump winning the caucus--money I couldn't afford to lose. Suppose I were a political strategist employed by the Cruz campaign, and if he lost, my job and reputation as a consultant would evaporate. Dirius, I further take your point that if I, for whatever strange reason, develop a fanatical emotional stake in the outcome of the caucus, that too could nudge my question into the "serious intent" category.

But so far as I can see, most political horaries are not of this nature: they're curiosity-driven. And we still haven't solved the problem of popular celebrity or political types of questions: if 20 astrologers ask the same question they can't all come up with the identical correct answer.

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Well yeah, but you'd have to check how many of those 20 querents are asking the question in a genuine way, and I still believe that if the questions are honest, most (if not all) the astrologers should come to the same conclusion.

Don't get me wrong, I share the opinion that horary should be reserved for more "important" stuff, or at least stuff that have an influence in our life despite how minor they might be, and that it shouldn't be used to ask about everything that pops in our head.

But even in questions that only spark a minor interest in the querent can be read. It is a poor use of horary and on that I agree a 100% with you.

i amnot sure about this but i m going to try predicting

so Trump is 1st house
Cruz is 7th

Trump looks very Jupiterian/moonish

so take Trump as moon since jupiter rules 10th

merc joins jupiter

cruz wins

dunno i am just testing this theory

dont take my word for this prediction

T

tikana: My chart my rulers. But I do believe Moon changing signs doesn't support Trump plus I noticed Mercury is moving to conj Saturn's antiscia, not good either. Another aspect that I felt was against Trump is the malefics are stronger than the benefics.

The way I can see Jupiter winning over Mercury is Jupiter is in an angular house, sure it's the 7th but that could mean him taking the fight to Trump?, is in his face. Plus Jupiter rules the 10th. Also the rx could mean him coming from behind to win the contest? and Jupiter is moving toward the conj with the NN. From Frawley he says if Lord 1 is ruled by Lord 7 and Lord 7 is in the exaltation of Lord 1 , it is Lord 1 who benefits. The enemy is overawed by our team! Jupiter is ruled by Mercury and Mercury is in Jupiter's terms.

This may be your case for Cruz winning using my rulers.

Moondance

your chart - keep it to yourself then

Unless of course there is good horary reason to switch the rulers of signif and in this case I believe there is. Because he is a Senator he would be given the 11th house and Saturn his ruler. With that pale complexion, black hair, small black eyes, large forehead, that's him alright. Then given the idea Kitchy had of the Asc. representing Iowa, Jupiter would represent them. Jupiter is sitting on that unfortunate star in Trump's house.

Now we have the Moon changing signs into Libra and honoring Saturn through exaltation, tripilicity and terms. Cruz wins. And that's my final answer.

Moondance

you cannot treat antiscia as moving to the point. it is either in or out
1.5 deg orb.. 2 planets have to land in that antiscia point

since you are not a voter who lives in iowa, i wouldnt rely on this chart at all
so whatever