"Since 1828 [...] the White House party has averaged 2.6 terms in office. A third term is not out of the question, but not very certain either. It depends on how well the White House party did in winning a second term compared to its winning the first term.
Obama won re-election in 2012 with a margin half the size of his win in 2008. Bad news for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The prediction formula of my model [...] gives Trump 52.5 percent of the two-party vote, making it all but certain (87 out of 100) that he will be the next President.
The forecast, to be sure, is about the popular vote, not the vote in the Electoral College. But with a 5-point popular-vote lead it is virtually impossible to lose out in the electoral tally."
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...-victory-in-november-is-a-virtually-certainty