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  #1  
Unread 01-04-2011, 04:17 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Hi
I am an engineer from Mumbai India. I am working on planets pull and tidal force effect on earthquakes. Accuracy of prediction is 80%. Yesterdays chile earthquake of 7.1 was predicted well in advance (without place)
Next major quake dates are 18/19 and 25/26 th January 2011
For theory and dates of 2011 please see my blog and web page
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

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  #2  
Unread 01-04-2011, 04:37 AM
dr. farr dr. farr is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!
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  #3  
Unread 01-04-2011, 04:44 AM
juicey J. juicey J. is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.
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  #4  
Unread 01-05-2011, 12:10 AM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dr. farr View Post
80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!
Yes!!!! Please do that.
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  #5  
Unread 01-05-2011, 12:11 AM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by juicey J. View Post
If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

Uranus and Pluto are major predictors of earthquake and major upheaval but then planet Earth has these in lesser or greater degree most of the time. If the places can be pinpointed with accuracy then many lives can maybe be saved with early warnings for evacuation.
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Last edited by Claire19; 01-10-2011 at 05:48 AM.
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  #6  
Unread 01-08-2011, 11:06 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Claire19 View Post
Uranus and Pluto are major predictors of earthquake and major upheaval but then planet Earth has these in lessor greater degree most of the time.
If the places can be pinpointed with accuracy then many lives can maybe be saved with early warnings for evacuation.

Hi
As per my calculations ,which are based on gravitational pull and tidal force by planet on earth,Uranus and Neptune and pluto are far away to cause pull
Major planets are to to be considered
Amit
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  #7  
Unread 01-08-2011, 11:13 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by juicey J. View Post
If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

Last edited by Amit Dave; 01-08-2011 at 11:17 AM.
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  #8  
Unread 01-08-2011, 11:19 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by juicey J. View Post
If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit
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  #9  
Unread 01-08-2011, 11:22 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dr. farr View Post
80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!

hi
please see my theory , past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit
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  #10  
Unread 01-08-2011, 11:25 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit
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  #11  
Unread 01-10-2011, 05:52 AM
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Claire19 Claire19 is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amit Dave View Post
Hi
As per my calculations ,which are based on gravitational pull and tidal force by planet on earth,Uranus and Neptune and pluto are far away to cause pull
Major planets are to to be considered
Amit
They are the indicators of upheaval and chaos and they are not too far away if they can affect our personal lives in our personal charts and we know they do. With the Universal workings I think it is a mistake to use distance as a premise in that way.....I dont know what you mean by major planets if they are not???? combinations of these major outer planets are the indicators...

Tidal pull is ruled by our Moon... The SUn has a major influence on us with the sun spot activity.. Neptune is indicator of major inundation and floods. Pluto rules underwater and beneath the crust activity. Uranus is thunder and lightning, tornadoes, storms and all major air activity causing disruption.

Any credible scientist and all informed astrologers know this. I dont know what techniques you use.

Using astrological technique I would say that Uranus in Aries coming into square with Pluto in Capricorn on and off during 2011 should mean major upheaval. Using an orb of not more then 3 degrees...let us see what happens.

What do you ascribe to the major flooding that the Australian north is experiencing right now. Much worse than our usual and after a long period of drought.....
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Last edited by Claire19; 01-10-2011 at 06:07 AM.
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  #12  
Unread 01-10-2011, 06:00 AM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amit Dave View Post
hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit
Places not known. I would suggest it is all a little useless then.
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  #13  
Unread 01-12-2011, 06:38 PM
Olivia Olivia is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Actually, it looks like astrology can do it, but not by this method. I think Dr Farr remembers a mutual friend from another forum who'd predicted three major earthquakes - and sent letters to both his government and the embassies of the countries involved before the disasters struck.

Sadly, nobody took him seriously, even after all three earthquakes and the loss of over 100,000 lives. And he was, and continued for some time after, to ask them for seismic maps, as those are often a necessity to finding the right spot (sometimes the astrology alone is very clear - if you have something happening right smack in a major city, for example).

But they wouldn't send the maps, and even now, the scientists in his country dismiss it all as 'lucky guesswork' when it's anything but - it's weeks upon weeks of reading and researching mundane charts - and he did present the principles of it to the scientists there who work in earthquakes.

He said in order to continue the work, he would need more seismic information and actual funding, but that's never come through, sadly.

He's predicted a couple of earthquakes since then but pretty much has given it up as something to do full-time because he doesn't have all the data he'd need, and realistically mundane astrology of that kind could do with a team of astrologers, not just one guy putting his livelihood on hold to do this.

Such a shame, and an absolute tragedy. Astrology doesn't make sense in the materialist paradigm, so as far as they're concerned he's just a 'good guesser'.
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  #14  
Unread 01-18-2011, 09:05 PM
Tham Tham is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Varuna (catastrophes) and Jupiter (teutonic forces)
are usually involved in earthquakes.

If I remember correctly, transiting Jupiter was right
over natal Jupiter, one of them retrograde, (opposing
teutonic forces) in the 2008 Tze Chuan earthquake
which killed over 60,000.
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  #15  
Unread 01-25-2011, 05:22 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dr. farr View Post
80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!


HI
PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE OF 7.4 IS THE PROOF OF HOW MUCH ACCURACY ( DATE HIT) CAN BE ACHIEVED.
pl see my blog and web page

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

watch 25/26th January also.
one quake of 6.2 alresdy occured at Tazakistan yesterday
Amit
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  #16  
Unread 01-25-2011, 05:36 AM
dr. farr dr. farr is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

I would like to say that the OP's ideas and predictive model are quite interesting and are certainly deserving of further testing in practice. Also thanks to AmitDave for sharing these ideas and this research.
Perhaps this thread should be moved to our AW research and development forum, perhaps inspiring some of our AW members to test out AmitDave's intriguing model...
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  #17  
Unread 01-30-2011, 11:57 AM
Amit Dave Amit Dave is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Hi
Major earthquake dates for February 2011 are now posted on my blog and web site

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ see calender on web page

one date more potent ie 18/19th February 2011 which may give quake more than 6.5
watch out
Amit
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  #18  
Unread 05-26-2011, 06:30 PM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

80% accuracy sounds amazing, but is it?

After reading the mentioned blog I noticed that the predictions are done on a + or - one day basis, and no location is given for the expected quake.
So this means that if an earthquake is predicted for May 6th, then it is considered accurate if a quake happens on the 5th, 6th ot 7th.

So how amazing is 80% ?
I did some back of the envelop calculation.

First I take some numbers from the earthquake stats.
Here I found what I need:
Earthquake stats and facts
-------
Magnitude Average Annually
8 and higher 1
7 - 7.9 15
6 - 6.9 134
5 - 5.9 1319
--------

So we get about 150 R6 or higher quakes per year.
Less than R6 is not worth talking about , because we get 3 to 4 per day of them.

Now , 150/365 becomes about 41% chance for a R6 earthquake on a given day. That means 59% for no earthquake.
The chance to have no R6 quake 3 days in a row becomes: 0.59 * 0.59 * 0.59 , which happens to work out as 20.5% chance.
So the chance to get a R6 quake within any random 3 day period is 79.5%
So to get 80% accuracy with astrology is in this case not so amazing, it is close to normal expectation.

Now, sometimes there will be two R6 quakes on a single day, so there are probably somewhat less than 150 days with R6 quakes.

My conclusion: 80% is in this case not as convincing as it appears.
Predictions will either have to be to the day (not 3 day), or give a region where the quake is expected.
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  #19  
Unread 05-26-2011, 11:21 PM
rahu rahu is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

amit dave
the problem with earthquake predictions is that unless you make a prediction exactly the seismic establishment will not recognize it.they hold earthquake predictions to a standard higher than any other earth science.

10years ago i posted a series of earthquake predictions on alt.geophysic.earthquake.i went for a statistical approach making approximately 300 predictions at various location on the earth over a 3 month period. the first 300 hundred were ridiculed.and trolls attacked me.but the statistic were accurate to over 80% on location,time and strength.so after another 300 valid predictions,i began to get very threatening replies ,such as"DO you feel that God has placed your dinner at the table of your enemies".one troll finally said ,"okay so you can predict earthqualkes ,call me when you can predict big ones"

finally my post were simply not posted with no reason given.

i then set up a geocitiies website for my predictions and "they" shut it down by blocking access to my prediction page.i corrected that and then "they" changed my password and recovery question so i was unable to access my site.

there are vested interests in the government that do not want "acts of god" explained.and if you do come up with greater accuracy than now,you will be surprised how you will be blocked.

i concentrated on posting hudreds of quakes to build a statistical base.
as my technique involved astrology and the record of past quakes,i did come to an impasse because the number of "big" quakes has increrased expontential in the last several decade.hence i did not have data from the historical record to predict emough large quakes.plus the fact that the threats from government rolls quashed my desire.

rahu

Last edited by rahu; 05-26-2011 at 11:33 PM.
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  #20  
Unread 05-27-2011, 03:54 AM
dr. farr dr. farr is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

I agree with Fourpillars that a specific region (or area) must be part of the earthquake prediction, and apparently Rahu has done this (relative to location specifications) in his astro-geological predictive work (referenc the above posting)
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  #21  
Unread 05-27-2011, 07:00 AM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

@rahu, @dr Farr

I think predicting smaller earthquakes is rather meaningless, unless a very specific time and place can be given. Smaller earthquakes are happening all the time.

For anybody who is in this line of work, I think this live earthquakes map is great to get some appreciation for how common earthquakes actually are:
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
And right below it you will find a detailed list with all quakes from the last 48 hours. A long list. Typically a lot of R4, a few R5, and regularly you get an R6+
That's just how it is.

When trying to forecast bigger earthquakes , say R6 and higher, then it can be OK to specify only a date and no place. But we have to realise that the normal expectation is about 30-40% chance for a R6+ quake on any random day. So unless we do better than that we will be wasting our time.

I think there is a very good reason why our earthquake predictions are not put on the frontpage: it panics people out of their homes, and often unnecessarily.
Happened some years ago in Bulgaria, and recently in Rome.
And then the astrolger gets sued for damages.
The burden of proof is on us to demonstrate that we can do better than normal expectation. And then our forecasts will be in the news. If need be you can also submit them to some wikileaks type site. They will happily reveal the scandal if persistently good predictions get negated.
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  #22  
Unread 05-27-2011, 09:27 PM
rahu rahu is offline
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

you are totally mistaken.
whats needed is a accurate measure of seismic periodicity.

focusing on big quakes only is meaningless because it doesn't give you any systematic understanding.

thinking quakes can be understood in islolation shows you are on a fool's quest.




good luck don quixote
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  #23  
Unread 05-28-2011, 06:27 AM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

@rahu

Nobody stops you from trying to forecasts smaller quakes.
But as I said , it will be meaningless *UNLESS* a very specific time and place is given.

How does your typical forecast for an earthquake look like? Does it include a place (or area)? And how narrow a time window is given?

Because there are an average of 1400 R5+ quakes per year.
That's 4 per day.
And if we take R4+ then we get 14000 of them.
So that's 40 per day.

If we do not give time and place, then everybody can predict small earthquakes with 100% accuracy. No need to look in any astrology chart.

It is not foolish to look into the question how many correct predictions we can expect by chance alone. In fact, that's the only way to establish that there is value in our method.
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  #24  
Unread 05-28-2011, 02:38 PM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourpillars View Post
80% accuracy sounds amazing, but is it?
Yes, and I don't see anyone else doing better than that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourpillars View Post
After reading the mentioned blog I noticed that the predictions are done on a + or - one day basis, and no location is given for the expected quake.
There are other factors which may not be known or are not understood that could affect the timing. +/-1 day is sufficient.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourpillars View Post
So how amazing is 80% ?
I did some back of the envelop calculation.

First I take some numbers from the earthquake stats.
Here I found what I need:
Earthquake stats and facts
-------
Magnitude Average Annually
8 and higher 1
7 - 7.9 15
6 - 6.9 134
5 - 5.9 1319
--------

So we get about 150 R6 or higher quakes per year.
Less than R6 is not worth talking about , because we get 3 to 4 per day of them.

Now , 150/365 becomes about 41% chance for a R6 earthquake on a given day. That means 59% for no earthquake.
The chance to have no R6 quake 3 days in a row becomes: 0.59 * 0.59 * 0.59 , which happens to work out as 20.5% chance.
So the chance to get a R6 quake within any random 3 day period is 79.5%
So to get 80% accuracy with astrology is in this case not so amazing, it is close to normal expectation.
Earthquake prediction in astrology has always focused on major catastrophic earthquakes that either present enormous financial loss or loss of life or both.

No one is concerned with minor earthquakes of Magnitude 5 or 6. The vast majority of earthquakes less than Magnitude 7 occur deep in the Earth's surface, like several miles below the surface.

You know about them only because there is an extensive series of seismic detection equipment in place to detect them. If it wasn't for that (and the internet), you would be blissfully ignorant of them.

The same is true of tornadoes. Tornadoes in the US are detected only because there is now an extensive interlinking system of NCOA Doppler radar, FAA aircraft radar and military radars that can detect them. 15 years ago, those tornadoes would have gone unreported and unknown, because they either caused no property damage, or were not witnessed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourpillars View Post
Now, sometimes there will be two R6 quakes on a single day, so there are probably somewhat less than 150 days with R6 quakes.
But those are meaningless.

Dead people would be a good analogy. Thousands of people die every day, but how many famous, beloved or nationally or internationally renown people die every day? Few if any.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourpillars View Post
My conclusion: 80% is in this case not as convincing as it appears. Predictions will either have to be to the day (not 3 day), or give a region where the quake is expected.
Like I said, I don't see anyone doing better.

In fact, I don't see anyone coming even remotely close to that.

If you read his blog, then you know his method is in still in its infancy in development. My suggestion would be to refine the method to increase accuracy to consistently 80%-90%, at which time there should be sufficient chart data to begin looking at location identification.
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Unread 05-28-2011, 05:09 PM
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Re: Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobZemco View Post
No one is concerned with minor earthquakes of Magnitude 5 or 6. The vast majority of earthquakes less than Magnitude 7 occur deep in the Earth's surface, like several miles below the surface.
The author of that blog uses R6 or more to determine the accuracy of his predictions. His choice, not mine. I agree that R6 quakes do not mean anything.

So if an R6+ happens within the date +/- 1 day, then he considers it accurate. And that's how he gets 80%

Just so happens that 80% is normal expectation if you predict R6 quakes with 3 day time windows and unspecified location.

If he can predict R7+ quakes with 80% accuracy, then we can talk. Even 30% will do. Because there are on average only 16 R7+ quakes per year.
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