IMO, planets don't cause events. They are signposts to potential circumstances. Ivy Goldstein Jacobson, Henry Weingarten, Charles Carter and other greats of astrology in this and the last century affirmed that one transit is not enough to signify an event.
As IVY once said: See it once: maybe; see it twice, possibly; see it thrice, probably; see it four times, certainty.
This means whatever meaning you ascribe to the transit, you must see the same kind of event in a solar return or lunar return or planetary return or any of the three kinds of progressions, or Solar Arc Directions.
Now if your event is simply an emotional or mental upset, Noel Tyl has shown consistently that one transit is all that is necessary.
For me, I would go further in having to know the power and friction of the the planets involved. Also, and I didn't check your chart, but the transiting planet must have a ptolemaic aspect relationship in you natal chart for it to have ANY effect in a transit, progressed, or directed chart.
I'm sure you wanted a simple silver bullet answer to your question, but real astrology is a subset of complexity/chaos theory, and there are no silver bullets in real astrology.