CapAquaPis
Well-known member
CapAquaPis those numbers make no sense. How do you get 15% fatality rate in Italy with seroprevalence of 26% amongst 60 million?
26% out of 60-62 million = 15 million, but the Italian government prefers to go by confirmed positive cases at 225,000 and 31,000 deaths, which is like 12%.
Scientists are constantly bickering on how many of us in the world were truly exposed to SARS-CoV2. They go by 10 select sites in the world where they done some serological studies: Gangelt-Heinsberg, Germany; Stockholm county, Sweden; Bergamo, Italy; Madrid, Spain; London, England, UK; Chelsea, Mass USA; Westchester County and New York City, NY USA; Santa Clara CA USA; Los Angeles county CA USA and already, they can study how many locals in Wuhan, Hubei, China were possibly infected in the first month of Covid-19. The variation of 5-10-15-20-even 25% depending on how many blood samples were studied and how much percentage there was. The entire nation? world? Realistically, 10 million to 40 million Americans and 100 to 120 million people worldwide, since this is a widespread disease, and this means 95% of us who had it (vs. 4.5 million global confirmed cases) without either knowing or assuming this is a cold or a bad flu, which is strange.
* Gangelt-Heinsberg (15% of 500), related to a winter carnival in Feb. and the tri-national German/Dutch/Belgian region has the highest percentage of Covid-19 cases outside Italy and Spain, now in a huge remission as a result of regional lockdowns now lifted.
* Stockholm County (25% of 2,300), that's .01% of 2.3 million residents in Sweden's largest city and capital, the country never had a lockdown, and they are flattening the curve, but 3,500 Swedes out of 35,000 confirmed cases died.
* Bergamo (despite 67-78,000 cases in Lombardy, you had 10,000 in Bergamo province of 1 million people, 10% out of 1000), theory has it a postseason soccer match in Bergamo brought in 40,000 spectators on Feb. 19th, and that's a third of the city's population, in 3 days the Lodi-Codogno area in Lombardy was the first quarantined area in the world outside China, Asia from Covid-19.
* Madrid (theories abound from 33-40% but 10% of 1,000 as well), believed to originated from Europe's largest Int'l women's day march, had 250,000 participants alone. Globally, the majority of these demonstrations had to be cancelled when more of the world knew about Covid-19 has appeared in their cities and countries, but Spanish government officials only banned all gatherings after March 7th.
* London (5% of 300), theories abound that 5% of England and 1 million Britons outside England are exposed, part of UK PM Boris Johnson's "herd immunity" experiment that led to a delayed lockdown when he's informed it's too risky, but he made a stay-at-home order for the elderly over age 65 and warned anyone with an underlying health condition to not venture out as well.
* Chelsea (25% of 1,000 in this suburb of Boston), scientific researchers also used city wastewater to examine how many locals currently have coronavirus in early May, the Boston area cluster is linked to a BioGen medical conference in March, part of the majority of the US' now 1.4 million Covid-19 cases in the Northeastern Corridor from Boston to NYC to Philadelphia to Washington DC.
* New Rochelle (15% of 500), esp. in a hospital maternity ward where 1 out of 8 patients were tested positive out of 500: 95% of pregnant women who were positive entering to deliver babies were asymptomatic, but 5% were showing mild symptoms, oddly this is a high risk group when their immunity is changed during their pregnancies, there could be other factors they have in NYC area, or it's long theorized the majority of women have stronger immunity than men.
* Santa Clara (5% of 3,300), thought to have the very first detected (and later discovered) cases of Covid-19 in CA and the USA in Jan-Feb. The possibility of 80,000 in Santa Clara valley (not counting San Jose with its 1 million people) were exposed, that's 5-85 times higher than the county's total confirmed cases (currently 2,400) - Santa Clara itself may had 800 then.
* Los Angeles County (5% of 1,000), up to half a million out of 10-12 million locals could have antibodies from SARS-CoV-2 exposure before the first state lockdown might broken the transmission chain to a considerably low level now.
* And finally, Wuhan: 85,000 confirmed cases in all of China, however there were models shown 75,000 locals in Wuhan before the lockdown on Jan. 23 had coronavirus, and could passed it on to more people, maybe up to 1 million, and this is a good reason the Chinese government set up an example of lockdowns based on the highly contagious nature of the disease related to SARS-CoV-1.
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