There are a 16- year Republican and 16-year Democrat election cycle. Since 1904, the Republicans have won all but one election every 16 years. The last was in 2016. Likewise, the Democrats have won all but one election every 16 years starting in 1912. The last was Barack Obama in 2008. That has been the case in 13 of 15 instances, or 85.7%.
According to this cycle, the Democrats’ turn will be in 2024. But what happens in the election that follows the 16-year cycle of each party? Does the incumbent win if he runs again? Does his party win if he doesn’t run? The results are the same.
In 13 of 15 cases, the incumbent party won. The only time the incumbent did not win was in 1932 when Herbert Hoover (Republican) was defeated by Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1980 when the incumbent Jimmy Carter was de feated by his Republican opponent, Ronald Regan. In both cases, the incumbent lost because the economy was performing poorly.
Based on this study, Donald Trump is favored to win (85.7% rate of frequency), especially if voters feel the economy is performing well under his leadership.
The U.S. economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter – increasing at a 33.1% annual rate –recovering about 2/3 of the ground it lost earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. – Harriet Torry, “U.S. Growth Eases Much of Slide,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2020.
The link posted above from Merriman - (astrology for Wall Street) also gives this quote which trump has been parroting the percentage in his recent rallies as "proof" somehow of how wonderful the economy is slated to become.
As you read from the Wall Street Journal, please keep in mind that Rupert Murdoch (owner of Fox News, and New York Post, recent acquisitions) also controls the tempo of the Wall Street Journal now.
The Wall Street Journal is controlled by Rupert Murdoch via Dow Jones Publications, which in turn is owned by Murdoch's News Corp. It published its first issue on July 8, 1889, under original publishers Charles Dow, Charles Bergstresser, and Edward Jones.
Rupert Murdoch owns 150 newspapers in Australia, three national newspapers in the United Kingdom and the Wall Street Journal and New York Post in the U.S., Voice of America reported in 2011. Murdoch owns properties that supplement these publications, including Community Newspaper Group and several Dow Jones information services.
note - This is an annualized rate. The quarter BEFORE this one, lost about 31% GDP....thus gained a little, but this is an annualized figure multiple by 4 quarters.
Its more a "hypothesis/theory" of what it CAN become. (imo) a "prediction only" IF it stayed on the same projector y.
From MM Merriman Analyses:
Presidential Election Cycles:
note: The last paragraph confused me. I personally don't think the economy is doing well. Of course what has revealed the fake economic numbers and shoring up of the stock market (the Federal Reserve) will eventually have to be paid.
But this is not something which most understand, they think "simply" and chant his mantras.
'The best economy EVER" has been one of them.
I hadn't heard before of a 16 yr cycle.
Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is also written about here -
https://files.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/a26e6291-4d17-4dd2-b05d-a369bd4050a9.pdf
"foreign interference in the swing-States"
David, can you tell us concretely what this consisted of?
There was a comprehensive Fox News column about it. I'll see if I can find it for you. Basically, it was false Facebook accounts, with mostly Russian agents along with some Brits, posing as American citizens and flooding the Midwest with anti-Hillary propaganda on Facebook; as well as relentless, cleverly worded, anti-Hillary phone surveys. It was well-planned and executed, and is believed to have effectively altered the results in several swing-states.
Mark Zuckerman had to appear before Congress, and would have been charged with a crime for allowing it to happen, were it not for a technicality: The Constitution had made it expressly illegal for printed publications to aid and abet foreign election interference, but, for obvious reasons, not electronic media outlets. That oversight has since been corrected, and Zuckerman is on notice not to let it happen again.
American intelligence agencies have confirmed the illegal propaganda barrage, but insist that the Russians didn't hack the actual vote-tallies.
This isn't the one I was looking for, which was much more detailed, but it addresses the same issue:
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/21/senate-intelligence-committee-affirms-russian-inte/
Have you gone through the contents of the laptop?
They are very disturbing. From photos, to videos, to actual bank
and financial statements. It's all there.
Unfortunately the elites control 95%
of information decimation in the country and well
... you won't hear it from the "actor" in your TV box.
The FBI is probably the most compromised of the intelligence agencies.
The FBI will most certainly "punt" this information.
...........*
Racist.
If you pay attention
it is very clear that the word “Racism”
has been re-defined by one faction
to mean something very nearly the opposite of what it once meant.
One one side, to be Racist means
to judge a person based on their skin color
– making race an issue.
From the other side, to be Racist means
to dare to judge people by anything other than their skin color
– not making race the main issue.
If you don’t make race the main issue that makes you Racist.
This now means that the different sides politically
are using the same word without being clearly aware
of what it means
or without being aware that it is used differently by the other side.
You have people arguing over whether or not they are Racist
without realizing
that they are using the words in completely different senses.
Most likely the people hearing these arguments
have only a fuzzy sense of just exactly what the word means
or how it is being used in a particular context.
The word Racism has been weaponized.
Calling someone a Racist
is now a way to dismiss or belittle a person
without having to bother taking them or their positions seriously
People may be a bit fuzzy on just what being Racist means
but
they are pretty sure
they don’t want to come anywhere near a person
who has been branded Racist.
By being used so vaguely and indiscriminately
as a political weapon
the word has lost much if not all of its original meaning
and that is dangerous.
It used to be that
when I heard someone described as Racist
that it actually meant something specific
and I would pay attention.
Now I hear of someone being called Racist and I blow it off
It is now a vague perjorative term meaning next to nothing.
To become aware of this sort of deliberate
weaponized corruption of our language
I very highly recommend the book
– “...Cynical Theories...” by Helen Pluckrose and James Lindsay.
It will open your eyes in a whole new way
to how language is currently being used
to coerce politics
and to muddy, confuse and control thinking and discourse.
Charles Obert
.
There was a comprehensive Fox News column about it. I'll see if I can find it for you. Basically, it was false Facebook accounts, with mostly Russian agents along with some Brits, posing as American citizens and flooding the Midwest with anti-Hillary propaganda on Facebook; as well as relentless, cleverly worded, anti-Hillary phone surveys. It was well-planned and executed, and is believed to have effectively altered the results in several swing-states.
Mark Zuckerman had to appear before Congress, and would have been charged with a crime for allowing it to happen, were it not for a technicality: The Constitution had made it expressly illegal for printed publications to aid and abet foreign election interference, but, for obvious reasons, not electronic media outlets. That oversight has since been corrected, and Zuckerman is on notice not to let it happen again.
American intelligence agencies have confirmed the illegal propaganda barrage, but insist that the Russians didn't hack the actual vote-tallies.
Fortunately, slander and libel are still frowned upon in the U.S.
The aggregate polls are holding steady regarding a landslide for Biden in the Popular Vote. They were correct in 2016 within a 2-point margin of error. It was the close races in the regional swing-States that made them look bad, regarding the Electoral College Vote.
The regional swing-State polls are still close and uncertain regarding the Electoral Vote. As Elena reminded us, a tie in the Electoral Vote would move it into the House, which would give Trump an advantage, although it would be dependent on the new, 2020 makeup there.
Still not the article I was looking for, but same issue:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_United_States_elections
Is Trump ACTUALLY telling his followers NOT to wear masks at his rallies???
He openly mocked Laura Ingram of Fox News for wearing a mask at one of his lovefests, even though it was required by Michigan law.
He also complained that Fox News covered a Biden rally. Like, he thinks Fox was being unfaithful to him just for doing its job and routinely reporting on the event!