BobZemco
Well-known member
[...continuation from horary thread, discussion moved here - Moderator]
There are scientific reasons why the answer is "no" in addition to the horary.
A nominal-sized particle (about 48 microns -- the size of radioisotopes, their daughter products and fission fragments in a reactor) falls at a rate 2,000 feet per hour. That is the basis by which we plot fallout on a map from nuclear hazards. Wind-speed and direction are the other two factors, and they are not uniform in the atmosphere. That information is typically reported by meteorological services in millibar layers. The surface pressure, generally under 12,000 feet is 850 millibars. The jet stream is in the 300 millibar zone, at 32,000 feet.
In order for radioisotopes to get into the jet stream, they would either have to be thrust there by an intense explosion, or rise in a heat plume from a fire exposed to the air.
Neither of those scenarios are possible for a number of reasons. The cascading reaction that must occur within 6 nanoseconds to create a nuclear detonation (like a nuclear weapon) cannot occur in a nuclear reactor. It's a matter of physics. It isn't possible for 4.5 kg of plutonium or 30 kg of U-235 to come together to form a critical mass (and those are the minimum masses for a yield of 0.1 - 1.0 kt).
The other issues involve reactor design and operation. Comparisons with Chernobyl are nothing more than panic and media hype. Chernobyl used carbon-graphite rods as reaction control moderators. Carbon-graphite burns. The Japanese reactors use MOX fuel and because they do, they use a different type of moderator, so there is nothing in the reactor core to burn.
The Japanese reactors also have concrete steel-reinforced containment domes (internal and external). Chernobyl had none, so the explosion caused by a build-up of hydrogen gas immediately exposed the reactor core to the atmosphere, and the burning carbon-graphite control rods did the rest of the damage. At those temperatures, water is a super-heated steam, with the atoms in an excited state, and then there are x-rays, gammas, neutrons, electrons, nuclei and fission fragments zinging around and the break the bonds between the outer electrons and you have what is sort of a nuclear electrolysis effect that splits water molecules into free hydrogen and free oxygen. And hydrogen, well, you saw what happened to the Hindenburg airship when it docked at Lakehurst, New Jersey.
Sure, some fallout particles from Chernobyl reached Stockholm, but that's about 780 miles or so. It's 5,400 miles from Japan to California, and again, a nominal-sized particle falls at a rate of 2,000 feet per hour.
It's a matter of simple math. Even with wind-speed in the jet stream of 70 knots, it'll take 70+ hours to reach the West Coast, during which time, the particles will have fallen 140,000+ feet. With the jet stream at 32,000 feet, well, there you go.
If there's a bit of confusion, yes, when the US and others conducted high altitude nuclear weapons test detonations, the radioactive particles really did circle the globe for years, but when I say high altitude, I'm talking 30 miles to 60 miles above the Earth's surface. That is the stratosphere, not the troposphere. The troposphere ends around 12-15 miles. Atmospheric conditions in the stratosphere are very complex and turbulent and that is why particles can stay there longer (and that includes particles of ejecta from asteroid strikes or violent volcanic eruptions).
There are scientific reasons why the answer is "no" in addition to the horary.
A nominal-sized particle (about 48 microns -- the size of radioisotopes, their daughter products and fission fragments in a reactor) falls at a rate 2,000 feet per hour. That is the basis by which we plot fallout on a map from nuclear hazards. Wind-speed and direction are the other two factors, and they are not uniform in the atmosphere. That information is typically reported by meteorological services in millibar layers. The surface pressure, generally under 12,000 feet is 850 millibars. The jet stream is in the 300 millibar zone, at 32,000 feet.
In order for radioisotopes to get into the jet stream, they would either have to be thrust there by an intense explosion, or rise in a heat plume from a fire exposed to the air.
Neither of those scenarios are possible for a number of reasons. The cascading reaction that must occur within 6 nanoseconds to create a nuclear detonation (like a nuclear weapon) cannot occur in a nuclear reactor. It's a matter of physics. It isn't possible for 4.5 kg of plutonium or 30 kg of U-235 to come together to form a critical mass (and those are the minimum masses for a yield of 0.1 - 1.0 kt).
The other issues involve reactor design and operation. Comparisons with Chernobyl are nothing more than panic and media hype. Chernobyl used carbon-graphite rods as reaction control moderators. Carbon-graphite burns. The Japanese reactors use MOX fuel and because they do, they use a different type of moderator, so there is nothing in the reactor core to burn.
The Japanese reactors also have concrete steel-reinforced containment domes (internal and external). Chernobyl had none, so the explosion caused by a build-up of hydrogen gas immediately exposed the reactor core to the atmosphere, and the burning carbon-graphite control rods did the rest of the damage. At those temperatures, water is a super-heated steam, with the atoms in an excited state, and then there are x-rays, gammas, neutrons, electrons, nuclei and fission fragments zinging around and the break the bonds between the outer electrons and you have what is sort of a nuclear electrolysis effect that splits water molecules into free hydrogen and free oxygen. And hydrogen, well, you saw what happened to the Hindenburg airship when it docked at Lakehurst, New Jersey.
Sure, some fallout particles from Chernobyl reached Stockholm, but that's about 780 miles or so. It's 5,400 miles from Japan to California, and again, a nominal-sized particle falls at a rate of 2,000 feet per hour.
It's a matter of simple math. Even with wind-speed in the jet stream of 70 knots, it'll take 70+ hours to reach the West Coast, during which time, the particles will have fallen 140,000+ feet. With the jet stream at 32,000 feet, well, there you go.
If there's a bit of confusion, yes, when the US and others conducted high altitude nuclear weapons test detonations, the radioactive particles really did circle the globe for years, but when I say high altitude, I'm talking 30 miles to 60 miles above the Earth's surface. That is the stratosphere, not the troposphere. The troposphere ends around 12-15 miles. Atmospheric conditions in the stratosphere are very complex and turbulent and that is why particles can stay there longer (and that includes particles of ejecta from asteroid strikes or violent volcanic eruptions).
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