Will midterms usher in new control in U.S. House?

If a party is lucky they get about 18 months to build a record to campaign on for the midterm elections. After that Senators running for election and all members of the House of Representatives doing the same, focus on their campaigns. With the record they seem to be building members of this congress may shift to campaign mode before 6 months prior to the midterm election.

A party in power usually make their greatest achievements in their first year. This bunch has already squandered more than one third of that year without any notable achievements to promote the general welfare of the country's voters and suffered a major setback in regards to passing their own health care package - a major concern to voters - and a point likely to be used against them in the campaign.

"Is there a Democratic wave building for 2018?"
Updated 5:07 PM ET, Tue May 9, 2017

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/09/politics/house-democrats-republicans-2018/

"With the notable exception of 2002, the first midterm election of a president's term is very bad news for his party. Democrats lost 63 seats in the 2010 election. They lost 54 House seats in Bill Clinton's first midterm in 1994. Republicans lost 26 House seats in the first midterm election of Ronald Reagan's presidency in 1982. (In 2002, Republicans actually gained 8 House seats as President George W. Bush's approval rating soared in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and as the country looked toward war in Iraq.) The average loss for a president's party in midterm elections since 1862 is more than 30 seats, according to PolitFact. Democrats need only 24 House seats to retake the majority."

"As Gallup's Jeffrey Jones concludes:

"Since 1946, when presidents are above 50% approval, their party loses an average of 14 seats in the US House in the midterm elections, compared with an average loss of 36 seats when presidents are below that mark."

Would the DNC rather have Pence in office, possibly stepping back from where trump is leading the GOP or let the sexual predator continue to lay the foundation to nearly destroy the party in the next 2 elections?

If this investigation could be continued until there isn't much time left for campaigning before charges for anything are put before the Congress I think it would be most damaging for them. Running for re-election while supporting trump's policies or after punishing the leadership behavior that was damaging to their constituents.

They should be aware that after the crash of 1929 Republicans could not elect a president after 1928 until 1952, losing 5 consecutive bids for the presidency and that they held a majority in the Senate for only 4 years between 1933 and 1981 - 44 years out of 48 in the minority and in the House those same 4 years between 1933 and 1995 - 58 years out of 62 in the minority. After the 1930 midterm elections Republicans controlled the White House and the Congress for the next 2 years. In the next 70 years they only had control of the White House and the Congress in 1953 and 1954 when Eisenhower was president, then not again until the 2000 election when Bush 2 was elected. - 2 years out of 70. They paid a heavy price for their governing policies that led to the Great Depression.

With an awakened and involved electorate we could make great strides after undoing what damage the GOP can do in the next 19 months when the next Congress will be sworn in. I think we gain control of the House in 2018 and can prevent any Republican bills from getting to the White House if we want to, then sweep into control of both Congress and the White House in 2020 and be in a position to pass many reform bills into law.

Before a Democrat could be sworn in (2021) it is likely that 3 Supreme Court vacancies will occur: Ginsburg would be 87 on March 15th, 2020, Breyer would be 82 on August 15th, and Kennedy would be 84 on July 23rd. The court could be stacked 7 to 2 favoring conservative appointees. I would really like to see President Obama fill one of those vacancies but would he want to?

How would Obama fill one of those supreme court vacancies?

unique_astrology, have you got a prediction for the House and Senate seats in 2018? I'd be tempted to use an Aries ingress chart,but the one for 2016 seemed to bomb pretty badly. However, its interpretation re: "the party in power" and the "opposition" probably doesn't work so well in the US system, where these can be split, as it would in a parliamentary system.

Of course, a President Pence would keep the Republican clean sweep in Washington, but I don't think he'd fire up the Trump base, many of whom had been Democrats prior to 2016. I think a lot of Trump voters are loyal to Trump the man, not to a more lackluster Republican party, with Joe Schmoe running for a House seat.

I am one of these Americans who thought that Trump should never have been elected; and now that he's in office, my view of him is steadily deteriorating. But if the Fall of the House of Trump were to drag down the United States with it, that would be a lot worse.

katydid said:

How would Obama fill one of those supreme court vacancies?

Click to expand...

If one should not open up, or be held open as the Republicans did for a year, until after the 2020 elections when a Democrat could be elected president and nominate him and have a Democratic majority in the congress confirm him.

Waybread, I am not satisfied with the results I got in looking at large gains or losses in past elections but have not exhausted the types of charts I might test. Keeping up with charts for current political events and characters and dealing with a great deal of pain is impeding my progress in looking at 2018 elections.

Here are some dates regarding past elections that are focused on the House of Representatives.

After the 1928 elections the GOP held 270 seats in the House. After the 1936 elections they held 88.

1930 GOP lost 52 seats
1932 GOP lost 101 seats

Great Depression manufacturing reached its lowest point in March 1933. Turn around began. FDR sworn in March 4, the last inauguration to be held on that date.

1934 GOP lost 14 seats
1936 GOP lost 15 seats

1938 Democrats lost 72 seats

The U.S. had 48 states as of February 14, 1912, and 50 as of August 21, 1959, but all of them never finished voting in House of Representatives elections on the same day until November 8, 1960.

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010. Republicans picked up 63 seats, their largest gain in House seats since 1938 and the largest House swing since 1948 when the GOP lost 75 seats. It was the highest loss of a party in a House midterm election since 1938.

Interesting, thanks. Please safeguard your health! The rest of the astrology can wait.

These charts made from my chart for the Republican party are acceptable for the end of election day in 1936, the fourth consecutive election in which they lost seats in the House of Representatives, and during that same time had lost the White House and become the minority in the Senate.

FYI: The founding fathers set the country up to run on a Grand Trine. From elections around Nov 4 (the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November) until inauguration on March 4 was about 120 days, from inauguration day to July 4 was 124 days, from July 4 to election day was about 123 days.