I apologize for not responding to this earlier but I didn't see it for a long time and by then had posted on another thread what I am going to post here now.
What is required for the impeachment process to take place likely precludes such an act until after the swearing in of the 116th Congress on or about January 3rd, 2019. After that there would need to be 5 votes in the House of Representatives for it to be approved for trial by the Senate where a 2/3 majority would be needed to convict.
So it is not likely that charges would be brought before 2019. Even then a Republican held Senate would not likely vote to convict. If party leaders made it clear to trump that the Senate had decided to convict in order to hopefully salvage seats in the general election of 2020 he would possibly decide to resign. Getting to that point could take until January 2020.
How Congress Could Impeach President Trump
“Removal actually requires five separate votes: two by the House Judiciary Committee, two by the entire House, then another vote in the Senate to convict.”
“… the House did vote to refer impeachment of George W. Bush to the House Judiciary Committee in June 2008; it died without a vote being taken.”
“A Trump impeachment would require a Republican (at least for now) House to vote twice against a president in their own party — assuming a Republican House Judiciary Committee would let it get that far. Even then, Democrats would still need nearly 20 Republican senators to cross party lines to convict in a trial.”
“But if Democrats can re-take the House in the 2018 mid-term, or Trump becomes so unpopular that his own party turns on him, impeachment becomes much more likely. Or at least, much easier.”
And thank you for liking the charts I post. Some of them take a bit of extra work.
Even if Trump were impeached one wonders who the replacement could be
How Difficult Would It Be to Impeach President Trump?
The article originally appeared on Time.
Among his critics, talk of impeachment began long before President Donald Trump even took office.
In September, a law professor argued that lawsuits against Trump University had already laid the groundwork for an impeachment case.
A history professor who has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 has said
Trump’s impeachment is imminent.
Some of Trump’s critics have argued that his business dealings are in violation of the Constitution’s Emoluments Clause, which prohibits the President from accepting gifts from foreign leaders or governments. Others, including Waters, have argued that the ties between Russia and Trump’s team are signs of wrongdoing. Christopher Peterson, a University of Utah law professor, maintains that theTrump University lawsuits provide grounds for impeachment and thinks there’s already a “fairly solid” case to be made.
Right now, arguments for impeachment are resting on potentially flimsy claims.
“The critical thing that those congressmen will have to show is
that he’s done something that will qualify as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors,”
Gerhardt said. “That’s the threshold.”
While there are mounting questions about potential coordination between Trump’s campaign and Russian interests,
no concrete conclusions have been reached.
“So far there hasn’t been a clear smoking gun,” Peterson said.