Preakness Stakes (May 20, 2006)

[aquirata]

Contenders for the 131st Preakness Stakes are listed here:
http://www.preakness.com/RacingInfo/Contenders.htm

If you are looking for foaling dates, they are included in the official program (at the end of the second line below the horse's name):
http://www.preakness.com/NR/rdonlyre...essProgram.pdf

Not surprisingly, Barbaro was installed as the Evens morning line favourite. I'm planning to post an analysis later today or tomorrow.

Date: Saturday, May 20, 2006
Post time: 6:04 pm
Venue: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore MD
Distance: 1 3/16 m
Stakes record: 1:53.4

[aquirata]

Well, I simply ran out of time to do this before the race. I am not following horse racing, so I truly have no idea who the winner was. I will carry through the same analysis that was successful in the British races a couple of weeks ago, and then look up the result to see how it agrees with the results.

[aquirata]

Preakness Stakes 2006

Date: May 20, 2006
Time: 6:04 pm
Place: Baltimore MD (USA)

RACE ANGLES
Asc: 4º Sco, ruled by the Mar
MC: 10º Leo, ruled by Sun
Des: 4º Tau, ruled by Ven
IC: 10º Aqu, ruled by Sat

RUNNERS' BIRTHDATES
Like Now: Apr 8, 2003
Platinum Couple: Apr 17, 2003
Hemingway’s Key: Jan 24, 2003
Greeley’s Legacy: Apr 29, 2003
Brother Derek: Mar 31, 2003
Barbaro: Apr 29, 2003
Sweetnorthernsaint: Mar 12, 2003
Bernardini: Mar 23, 2003
Diabolical: Feb 25, 2003

ORBS
Asc, MC, Des, IC, IHC, For: 0º
Sun: 2º plus 30’ for natal movement
Mon: 2º plus 6º30’ for natal movement
Mer, Ven: 1º plus 30’ for natal movement
Mar: 1º plus 15’ for natal movement
Jup, Sat, Ura, Nep, Plu: 1º plus 0’ natal for movement

POINT VALUES
Conjunction: 12 points
Opposition: 6 points
Trine: 4 points
Square: 3 points
Sextile: 2 points

NATAL MOON CONTACTING RACE MOON, RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: tri Mon, tri Asc = 4+4 = 8 points
Platinum Couple: tri Mon, squ Sat, con Asc, squ MC = 4+3+12+3 = 22 points
Hemingway’s Key: opp Ven, squ Mar = 12+3 = 15 points
Greeley’s Legacy: con Ven, squ Mar = 12+3 = 15 points
Brother Derek: sex Sun, tri Mar, tri Sat = 2+4+4 = 10 points
Barbaro: con Ven, squ Mar = 12+3 = 15 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: tri Mon, tri Asc = 4+4 = 8 points
Bernardini: tri Ven, tri MC = 4+4 = 8 points
Diabolical: sex Mon, tri Des = 2+4 = 6 points

NATAL SUN (RACE MC RULER) CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: con Ven, squ Mar = 12+3 = 15 points
Platinum Couple: (none) = 0 points
Hemingway’s Key: opp Sat, squ Asc = 6+3 = 9 points
Greeley’s Legacy: squ Sat, squ MC = 3+3 = 6 points
Brother Derek: tri MC = 4 points
Barbaro: squ Sat, squ MC = 3+3 = 6 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: tri Mar = 4 points
Bernardini: sex Sun = 2 points
Diabolical: tri Asc = 4 points

NATAL MARS CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: squ Ven, opp Mar = 3+12 = 15 points
Platinum Couple: tri Sun = 4 points
Hemingway’s Key: tri Sat = 4 points
Greeley’s Legacy: opp Sat, squ Asc = 12+3 = 15 points
Brother Derek: (none) = 0 points
Barbaro: opp Sat, squ Asc = 12+3 = 15 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: tri Des = 4 points
Bernardini: (none) = 0 points
Diabolical: (none) = 0 points

RACE FORTUNA'S ASPECTS
Like Now: (none) = 0 points
Platinum Couple: squ Mon = 3 points
Hemingway’s Key: opp Nep = 6 points
Greeley’s Legacy: squ Sun, tri Mon, tri Ven = 3+4+4 = 11 points
Brother Derek: tri Sun = 4 points
Barbaro: squ Sun, tri Mon, tri Ven = 3+4+4 = 11 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: opp Ven, opp Nep = 6+6 =12 points
Bernardini: tri Mon = 4 points
Diabolical: opp Nep = 6 points

ANGULARITY OF PLANETS NOT ALREADY CONSIDERED
Like Now: Mer con Des = 12 points
Platinum Couple: (none) = 0 points
Hemingway’s Key: Nep con IC = 12 points
Greeley’s Legacy: Ven tri MC = 4 points
Brother Derek: Ven tri Asc = 4 points
Barbaro: Ven tri MC = 4 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: Ven con IC = 12 points
Bernardini: (none) = 0 points
Diabolical: Jup con MC = 12 points

PLANETS CONJUNCT INTERMEDIATE CUSPS
Like Now: Ven con 5th, Mon con 9th = 12+12 = 24 points
Platinum Couple: (none) = 0 points
Hemingway’s Key: (none) = 0 points
Greeley’s Legacy: Ven con 6th, Mon con 6th =12+12 = 24 points
Brother Derek: Sun con 6th = 12 points
Barbaro: Ven con 6th, Mon con 6th = 12+12 = 24 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: Mer con 5th, Mon con 9th = 12+12 = 24 points
Bernardini: (none) = 0 points
Diabolical: Mon con 3rd = 12 points

TOTALS
1. Greeley’s Legacy: 15+6+15+11+4+24 = 75 points
1. Barbaro: 15+6+15+11+4+24 = 75 points
3. Like Now: 8+15+15+0+12+24 = 74 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: 8+4+4+12+12+24 = 64 points
Hemingway’s Key: 15+9+4+6+12+0 = 46 points
Diabolical: 6+4+0+6+12+12 = 40 points
Brother Derek: 10+4+0+4+4+12 = 34 points
Platinum Couple: 22+0+4+3+0+0 = 29 points
Bernardini: 8+2+0+4+0+0 = 14 points

BETTING FORECAST
1. Barbaro: 1/1 (0.50)
2. Brother Derek: 3/1 (0.25)
3. Sweetnorthernsaint: 4/1 (0.20)
Bernardini: 8/1 (0.11)
Like Now: 12/1 (0.08)
Greeley’s Legacy: 20/1 (0.05)
Hemingway’s Key: 30/1 (0.03)
Diabolical: 30/1 (0.03)
Platinum Couple: 50/1 (0.02)

FINAL ASSESSMENT
1. Barbaro: 75*0.50 = 37.50 points
2. Sweetnorthernsaint: 64*0.20 = 12.80 points
3. Brother Derek: 34*0.25 = 8.50 points
Like Now: 74*0.08 = 5.69 points
Greeley’s Legacy: 75*0.05 = 3.57 points
Bernardini: 14*0.11 = 1.56 points
Hemingway’s Key: 46*0.03 = 1.48 points
Diabolical: 40*0.03 = 1.29 points
Platinum Couple: 29*0.02 = 0.57 points

Barbaro comes on top both in raw points and also when combined with the betting forecast. Two notable exceptions that deviate significantly from the forecast: Greeley’s Legacy (sharing the foaling date with Barbaro) is much better, and Brother Derek and Bernardini much worse at the time of the race than abilities alone would indicate.

I will now look up the result and post a post mortem analysis.

[aquirata]

Here is the race result:

RESULT
12th Race, Next Post 7:19 Off: 6:19
1 3/16 Miles. 3 Year Olds Stakes Purse: $1,000,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
-- ----- ------ ------- --- ----- -----
8 Bernardini Castellano J J 126 27.80 9.40 5.80
7 Sweetnorthernsaint Desormeaux K J 126 7.80 5.00
3 Hemingway's Key Rose J 126 8.00

Times in 5ths: :231 :463 1:101 1:353 1:543
Times in 100ths: :23.21 :46.69 1:10.24 1:35.73 1:54.65

Also ran: Brother Derek, Greeley's Legacy, Platinum Couple, Like Now, Diabolical and Barbaro

The race was started 15 minutes later than the official post time. A few quotes from the race report:

"Bernardini raced to a smashing victory in the 131st running of the Grade I, $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Javier Castellano rode the lightly raced son of A.P. Indy to victory in 1:54.65 for the 1-3/16-mile distance on the main track. Sweetnorthernsaint could not fend off the winner as they raced down the stretch but finished a game second, 5-1/4 lengths behind. Hemingway’s Key finished third. Brother Derek, second in the wagering, broke poorly, got as close as second at the half-mile marker but tired and finished fourth."

"Barbaro, the 1-2 favorite, delayed the start when he broke through the gate and had to be restrained by jockey Edgar Prado and the Pimlico outriders. After he returned to the starting gate and after suffering a career-ending injury ([he] took a bad step and was pulled up on the frontstretch), the colt was vanned off the racetrack."

I'll be back with some thoughts on the race.

[Lorielle]

The Belmont is this coming Sunday. I don't know much about that race, though.

[fensi88]

The race was started 15 minutes later than the official post time.

That changed everything!

[aquirata]

Here is an updated assessment:

Date: May 20, 2006
Time: 6:19 pm
Place: Baltimore MD (USA)

RACE ANGLES
Asc:7º Sco, ruled by the Mar
MC: 14º Leo, ruled by Sun
Des: 7º Tau, ruled by Ven
IC: 14º Aqu, ruled by Sat

RUNNERS' BIRTHDATES
Like Now: Apr 8, 2003
Platinum Couple: Apr 17, 2003
Hemingway’s Key: Jan 24, 2003
Greeley’s Legacy: Apr 29, 2003
Brother Derek: Mar 31, 2003
Barbaro: Apr 29, 2003
Sweetnorthernsaint: Mar 12, 2003
Bernardini: Mar 23, 2003
Diabolical: Feb 25, 2003

ORBS
Asc, MC, Des, IC, IHC, For: 0º
Sun: 2º plus 30’ for natal movement
Mon: 2º plus 6º30’ for natal movement
Mer, Ven: 1º plus 30’ for natal movement
Mar: 1º plus 15’ for natal movement
Jup, Sat, Ura, Nep, Plu: 1º plus 0’ natal for movement

POINT VALUES
Conjunction: 12 points
Opposition: 6 points
Trine: 4 points
Square: 3 points
Sextile: 2 points

NATAL MOON CONTACTING RACE MOON, RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: tri Mon, tri Asc = 4+4 = 8 points
Platinum Couple: tri Mon, squ Sat, con Asc, squ MC = 4+3+12+3 = 22 points
Hemingway’s Key: opp Ven, squ Mar = 6+3 = 9 points
Greeley’s Legacy: con Ven, squ Mar, tri MC = 12+3+4 = 19 points
Brother Derek: sex Sun, tri Mar, tri Sat = 2+4+4 = 10 points
Barbaro: con Ven, squ Mar, tri MC = 12+3+4 = 19 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: tri Mon, tri Asc = 4+4 = 8 points
Bernardini: tri Ven, tri MC = 4+4 = 8 points
Diabolical: sex Mon, tri Des = 2+4 = 6 points

NATAL SUN (RACE MC RULER) CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: con Ven, squ Mar = 12+3 = 15 points
Platinum Couple: (none) = 0 points
Hemingway’s Key: opp Sat = 6 points
Greeley’s Legacy: squ Sat, con Des = 3+12 = 15 points
Brother Derek: (none) = 0 points
Barbaro: squ Sat, con Des = 3+12 = 15 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: tri Mar = 4 points
Bernardini: sex Sun = 2 points
Diabolical: tri Asc = 4 points

NATAL MARS CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES OR RACE ANGLES
Like Now: squ Ven, opp Mar = 3+6 = 9 points
Platinum Couple: tri Sun = 4 points
Hemingway’s Key: tri Sat = 4 points
Greeley’s Legacy: opp Sat = 6 points
Brother Derek: (none) = 0 points
Barbaro: opp Sat = 6 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: (none) = 0 points
Bernardini: (none) = 0 points
Diabolical: (none) = 0 points

RACE FORTUNA'S ASPECTS
Like Now: (none) = 0 points
Platinum Couple: squ Mon = 3 points
Hemingway’s Key: con Jup = 12 points
Greeley’s Legacy: tri Mon = 4 points
Brother Derek: (none) = 0 points
Barbaro: tri Mon = 4 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: (none) = 0 points
Bernardini: tri Mon = 4 points
Diabolical: (none) = 0 points

ANGULARITY OF PLANETS NOT ALREADY CONSIDERED
Like Now: Jup squ Asc = 3 points
Platinum Couple: Jup squ Asc = 3 points
Hemingway’s Key: Jup con MC = 12 points
Greeley’s Legacy: Nep con IC = 12 points
Brother Derek: Jup squ Asc = 3 points
Barbaro: Nep con IC = 12 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: (none) = 0 points
Bernardini: Jup squ Asc = 3 points
Diabolical: (none) = 0 points

PLANETS CONJUNCT INTERMEDIATE CUSPS
Like Now: Mon con 9th = 12 points
Platinum Couple: (none) = 0 points
Hemingway’s Key: (none) = 0 points
Greeley’s Legacy: Mon con 6th =12 points
Brother Derek: (none) = 0 points
Barbaro: Mon con 6th =12 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: Mar con 3rd, Mon con 9th = 12+12 = 24 points
Bernardini: (none) = 0 points
Diabolical: Mon con 3rd = 12 points

TOTALS
1. Greeley’s Legacy: 19+15+6+4+12+12 = 68 points
1. Barbaro: 19+15+6+4+12+12 = 68 points
3. Like Now: 8+15+9+0+3+12 = 47 points
Hemingway’s Key: 9+6+4+12+12+0 = 43 points
Sweetnorthernsaint: 8+4+0+0+0+24 = 36 points
Platinum Couple: 22+0+4+3+3+0 = 32 points
Diabolical: 6+4+0+0+0+12 = 22 points
Bernardini: 8+2+0+4+3+0 = 17 points
Brother Derek: 10+0+0+0+3+0 = 13 points

BETTING FORECAST
1. Barbaro: 1/1 (0.50)
2. Brother Derek: 3/1 (0.25)
3. Sweetnorthernsaint: 4/1 (0.20)
Bernardini: 8/1 (0.11)
Like Now: 12/1 (0.08)
Greeley’s Legacy: 20/1 (0.05)
Hemingway’s Key: 30/1 (0.03)
Diabolical: 30/1 (0.03)
Platinum Couple: 50/1 (0.02)

FINAL ASSESSMENT
1. Barbaro: 68*0.50 = 34.00 points
2. Sweetnorthernsaint: 36*0.20 = 7.20 points
3. Like Now: 47*0.08 = 3.62 points
Brother Derek: 13*0.25 = 3.25 points
Greeley’s Legacy: 68*0.05 = 3.24 points
Bernardini: 17*0.11 = 1.89 points
Hemingway’s Key: 43*0.03 = 1.39 points
Diabolical: 22*0.03 = 0.71 points
Platinum Couple: 32*0.02 = 0.63 points

FINISHING ORDER
1. Bernardini
2. Sweetnorthernsaint
3. Hemingway's Key

Also ran: Brother Derek, Greeley's Legacy, Platinum Couple, Like Now, Diabolical and Barbaro

More to come...

[aquirata]

The analysis was incorrect in two important considerations:

1. Picked Barbaro who finished last
2. The eventual winner was rated only 6th of 9 runners

It was correct in picking up Sweetnorthernsaint as a significant contender and assessing Brother Derek lower than the morning line (I don't have access to the final odds). It was also correct in pointing to Hemingway’s Key as much better than the morning line would indicate, but overrated Like Now.

So not a spectacular prediction by any means.

Looking at the race house positions of natal Suns (ruler of race MC), we notice the following:

Like Now: 6th
Platinum Couple: 6th
Hemingway’s Key: 3rd
Greeley’s Legacy: con Des
Brother Derek: 5th
Barbaro: con Des
Sweetnorthernsaint: 5th
Bernardini: 5th
Diabolical: 4th

Relative to the morning line, Bernardini (5th), Sweetnorthernsaint (5th) and Hemingway's Key (3rd) performed better, while Barbaro (Des) and Like Now (6th) finished worse. There may be some correlation there.

Moreover, Barbaro's Sun is opposed by Jupiter, squared by Saturn, squared by MC, and receives a sextile from the Moon in addition to being on the Descendant. Bernardini's Sun only receives trines and sextiles, and is conjunct North Node. I'm sure the race MC ruler's state in the natal chart is significant with respect to the outcome, so this perhaps deserves some further consideration.

[AquariusMoon]

Peter, your analyses are awesome. Looking at a race in hindsight and doing the analysis is just as interesting as doing it before the race. Thanks for sharing this.

I was watching the Preakness on t.v., and I'd never seen a horse break through a gate before. It was amazing. Those gates are very heavy. Barbaro has been in the news a lot over here in the U.S. and is making a great recovery. Interesting to see Barbaro's transits.

Lorielle, yes, the Belmont is next week.

[fensi88]

POINT VALUES
Conjunction: 12 points
Opposition: 6 points
Trine: 4 points
Square: 3 points
Sextile: 2 points

Peter, if you remeber, from the very first analysis of horse race I ask you about nature of aspects. Maybe you have to change value of points.

Bernardini's Sun only receives trines and sextiles, and is conjunct North Node.

So maybe trines and sextiles have to get more points from square or oppositions?

[aquirata]

Yes, we may need to go to + and - values. The difficulty I have with this is that an opposition or square may be helping and hindering the same time (i.e. the need to overcome hindrance may result in more or less motivation - how are we to say which?). Considering full celestial state of planets is a bit more than I was going to get involved in, but we may not have an option if we want to make reliable predictions.

[aquirata]

AquariusMoon,

Thanks, I always try. It's disappointing that the analysis was not closer to the actual result, but it is an opportunity to improve technique. If Barbaro had not broken through the gate, he might have taken the race - just a speculation of course. The question is, could this accident have been forecast before the event?

[AquariusMoon]

Originally Posted by aquirata

AquariusMoon,

Thanks, I always try. It's disappointing that the analysis was not closer to the actual result, but it is an opportunity to improve technique. If Barbaro had not broken through the gate, he might have taken the race - just a speculation of course. The question is, could this accident have been forecast before the event?

This may be where intuition comes in. I was watching the race with someone who is intuitive. He told me Barbaro wasn't going to win, but was as surprised as I about the accident. If serious about horseracing, wouldn't it be good to have one person who is intuitive, and one person who understands astrology working together.

Yes, with astrology, things can go either way. Squares and oppositions can be good for motivation, as you have said in a previous post.

You are obviously having a lot of fun doing this, and it's fun to try to keep up with you!

I don't really know if horseraces can be predicted due to the variables. From looking at your analyses, it looks quite time-consuming, but doing it every day would give someone lots of practice.

I knew a very intuitive pro horseracer who would spend all day at it, five days a week, and was quite successful except for some years. Oh, the losses! Like tr Saturn is just getting off his H5 Pluto about now. I would think that astrology would be especially helpful to someone like that, to know when to take a break.

AqMoon