Wednesday's race (May 10, 2006)

[aquirata]

Today's race is the 4:00 at Chester, a handicap over 1m4f. The race card is at http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/c...flag=1&cards=1

Date: May 10, 2006
Time: 4:00 pm
Place: Chester, UK

RACE ANGLES
Asc: 0º Libra, ruled by Venus
MC: 0º Cancer, ruled by the Moon
Des: 0º Aries, ruled by Mars
IC: 0º Capricorn, ruled by Saturn

RUNNERS' BIRTHDATES
Remember Ramon: 27Mar’03
Galient: 26Feb’03
Dynacam: 10May’03
Daylami Star: 3May’03
Gee Dee Nen: 6Apr’03
Reveur: 8Apr’03

NATAL MOON (RACE MC RULER) CONTACTING RACE MOON (9º) OR ANGLES (6º)
Remember Ramon: tri Asc (6º)
Galient: squ Mon (6º)
Dynacam: sex MC (1º)
Daylami Star: tri Asc (3º)
Gee Dee Nen: tri Asc (6º)
Reveur: squ Asc (0º), con MC (0º)

NATAL MARS CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES (VENUS, MOON, MARS, SATURN - 6º) OR ANGLES (3º)
Remember Ramon: squ Mon (5º), opp Mar (1º)
Galient: -
Dynacam: squ Jup (2º)
Daylami Star: sex Ven (1º)
Gee Dee Nen: squ Mon (2º), opp Mar (5º)
Reveur: squ Mon (3º)

REMAINING CONTENDERS
Remember Ramon: 3 contacts
Dynacam: 2 contacts
Daylami Star: 2 contacts
Gee Dee Nen: 3 contacts
Reveur: 3 contacts


RACE FORTUNA'S ASPECTS (3º, EXCEPT 6º TO MOON)
Remember Ramon: con Ven (0º), con Ura (1º), squ Nod (2º)
Dynacam: opp Mon (2º), tri Sat (2º), con Ura (3º), squ Nod (0º)
Daylami Star: squ Mon (4º), tri Sat (3º), con Ura (3º), squ Nod (0º)
Gee Dee Nen: sex Mer (2º), con Ura (2º), squ Nod (0º)
Reveur: tri Mon (1º), con Ura (2º), squ Nod (0º)

SUMMARY
Remember Ramon: 6 contacts
Dynacam: 6 contacts
Daylami Star: 6 contacts
Gee Dee Nen: 6 contacts
Reveur: 6 contacts

It’s very tight. Interestingly, this is a handicap, so it’s supposed to be very tight! Let’s look at who is most angular at the time of the race (3º orb):

ANGULARITY
Remember Ramon: -
Dynacam: Sat (3º)
Daylami Star: -
Gee Dee Nen: -
Reveur: Mon (0º)

So it’s between Dynacam and Reveur. The Racing Post betting forecast is not out yet, but here is the one from Sporting Life:

BETTING FORECAST
9/4 Dynacam (USA), 5/2 Remember Ramon (USA), 7/2 Galient (IRE), 7/1 Gee Dee Nen, 8/1 Daylami Star, 16/1 Reveur

This definitely tips the scales in favour of Dynacam. Remember Ramon edges out Daylami Star and Gee Dee Nen for third place on the basis of more hard aspects.

MY CALL
1. Dynacam
2. Reveur
3. Remember Ramon

Since the analysis didn’t really yield a clear-cut rank of runners, it may be completely off. I would be interested in what you think.

[aquirata]

Let's try Draco's suggestion of using natal Jupiter as a general significator for luck and good fortune. Today's contenders make the following connections to rulers of race angles (race Moon, Venus, Mars and Saturn) and the race angles themselves:

Remember Ramon: tri Ven (0º), con Sat (3º)
Galient: tri Ven (2º), con Sat (5º)
Dynacam: tri Ven (2º), con Sat (5º)
Daylami Star: tri Ven (1º), con Sat (4º)
Gee Dee Nen: tri Ven (0º), con Sat (3º)
Reveur: tri Ven (0º), con Sat (3º)

These runners are all 3yo, so that's our problem here. There is not a whole lot of difference between the positions since Jupiter moves so slowly. Natal angles would be the best in terms of speed and hence difference between runners, but they are not available as the birth times are unknown. The Moon is the next best thing, and then the Sun and company (Mercury, Venus). Even Mars moves a fair bit in a few days, but that's probably where the cut-off would be for horses of similar age.

Taking a look at Tuesday, only the third place finisher had a strong hook-up to the angles, the winner had a loose 9 degree conjunction with one of the angle rulers (Mercury). On Monday, all except one runner had two contacts to their Jupiter. The Kentucky Derby again wouldn't be indicative due to the small spread in birth dates.

Overall, I'm not convinced but it's something worth keeping in mind.

[fensi88]

When you have SCo on MC would you use Pl or Ma as ruler (due to slow PL)?

[fensi88]

Interesting, I look by numerology and get same result for first palce:

1.Dynacam

At this day Dynacam is in 5 year, 5 Quarterly cycle, 1 month. 5.5.5. day (popularity and need to hit the road).
From all horses, only Dynacam is in 1 month ( Will To Succeed, Aggressiveness, Overcoming Obstacles).

[aquirata]

When you have SCo on MC would you use Pl or Ma as ruler (due to slow PL)?

Yes, you'd have to look to both in a horse race as even a few years could make very little difference in the position of Pluto. The most trouble we'd have is with Sagittarius through Pisces on MC. Other indicators may decide the race, but certainly in these cases it would be harder to come to a conclusion.

[aquirata]

Interesting, I look by numerology and get same result for first palce: 1.Dynacam

Interesting, indeed! What is your numerology method, and what results have you achieved with it?

Something else to note is that today is the birthday of Dynacam, which is usually another strong indicator of success.

The Racing Post betting forecast is out, and it's markedly different from the one quoted above:
4/5 Galient, 4/1 Remember Ramon, 6/1 Daylami Star, Dynacam, 14/1 Gee Dee Nen, 50/1 Reveur

Dynacam is still much stronger than Reveur, so the final list should remain the same. Interesting, however, that it is now the odds-on favourite Galient that was elimintaed in the first step. Double-checking his contacts to race PoF, we only find one point (con Ura 0º), and there is no angularity at all. All in all, it is right to reject Galient from an astrological perspective, which doesn't preclude the possibility of him winning the race. The entire matter hinges on two things:

1. Choosing the right method and executing it correctly
2. The size of the astrological effect

Even if we do the first point to perfection, it will be no use if the effect is only 1%. If the effect is large (say 50% or more), any astrological finding will be significant. I have a feeling, however, that the truth is somewhere in-between.

[fensi88]

I have no "my" method, this is the first time I do this for horse race. I have samo numerology program which gives the predict for chosen date so I input data for all runners, read explanation for today and considering that I now basic rulers, what some number means, I think that Dynacam has great chance. I elimanted Ramon and Star because they are in 7 year and 7 Quarterly cycle and 7 means passive, delays. Gallient and Nen are in 9year/5cycle/5month, 9 is emotional, so I suppose that is not good for race. And Reveur is in 11/2year/5 cycle/7month, 11/2 is calm, pasive and 7 too, so I eliminated him.

[fensi88]

So, what happened? Who wins?

[aquirata]

Galient 15/8F won this race despite us telling him not to do it Dynacam 5/1 came 4th, Reveur 33/1 5th and Remember Ramon 7/2 6th. The runners basicallly finished in order of ability (as set buy the odds) except for Remember Ramon, who significantly underperformed in terms of finish position.

Looking at the charts, the only major influence Galient had going for him was contacts by the natal Moon to rulers of the race angles. Perhaps this is worth watching out for. If we repeat the analysis with this modification, we get the following:

NATAL MOON (RACE MC RULER) CONTACTING RACE MOON (9º), RULERS OF RACE ANGLES (VENUS, MOON, MARS, SATURN - 9º) OR ANGLES (6º)
Remember Ramon: sex Ven (2º), opp Sat (1º), tri Asc (6º)
Galient: squ Mon (6º), squ Ven (5º), opp Mar (3º), sex Sat (0º)
Dynacam: sex MC (1º)
Daylami Star: sex Sat (2º), tri Asc (3º)
Gee Dee Nen: sex Ven (2º), sex Sat (1º), tri Asc (6º)
Reveur: squ Asc (0º), con MC (0º)

Together with the contacts of natal Mars, we have:

Remember Ramon: 5 contacts
Galient: 4 contacts
Dynacam: 2 contacts
Daylami Star: 3 contacts
Gee Dee Nen: 4 contacts
Reveur: 4 contacts

If anybody, Dynacam must be eliminated from this list. If we allow only 1 degree for all contacts (+6 degrees for natal Moon due to uncertainty), we get:

Remember Ramon: 4 contacts
Galient: 4 contacts
Dynacam: 1 contacts
Daylami Star: 3 contacts
Gee Dee Nen: 3 contacts
Reveur: 2 contacts

Dynacam and Reveur could be eliminated from the above. Looking further to Part of Fortune and angularity, and keeping to 1 degree aspects, we get:

Remember Ramon: 2 contacts
Galient: 2 contacts
Daylami Star: 1 contact
Gee Dee Nen: 1 contact

Galient could have been given the nod on the basis of odds. It is curious how strong Remember Ramon appears to be while finishing last. A description of the race reveals why:

"Remember Ramon led for the first 1f and remained prominent until weakening quickly from 2f out and eased. He had raced keenly and hung right for most of the way, seeming ill at ease on this track, but has much more ability than his finishing position suggests. It transpired that the bit also slipped through Remember Ramon's mouth and he is worth another chance."

So there you have it. I don't have a race picked for today (Thursday) yet, bu I'll do one of the evening races later.

[fensi88]

Thanks for report, I must see later in the evening detailes regarding charts. As I see, it is important number of contacts, no nature of contacts (for example is it tri or squ).

[aquirata]

I've been wondering about the nature of aspects actually. There are two ways this can affect the assessment:

1. Hard vs. soft aspects
2. Strength of aspects

If we only count hard aspects, we have for natal Moon, Mars, PoF and angles:

1. Remember Ramon: 5 contacts
2. Galient: 4 contacts
3. Reveur: 4 contacts
4. Gee Dee Nen: 3 contacts
5. Dynacam: 2 contacts
6. Daylami Star: 1 contact

Not bad, but I like the previous list better.

Taking strengths of aspects into account, let's assign 12 points for conjuction, 6 for opposition, 4 for trine, 3 for square and 2 for sextile, and keep to 1 degree orbs (+6 for natal Moon). We get:

NATAL MOON
Remember Ramon: 2+6+4 = 12 points
Galient: 3+3+6+2 = 14 points
Dynacam: 2 points
Daylami Star: 2+4 = 6 points
Gee Dee Nen: 2+2+4 = 8 points
Reveur: 3+12 = 15 points

NATAL MARS
Remember Ramon: opp Mar (1º) = 6 points
Galient: -
Dynacam: -
Daylami Star: sex Ven (1º) = 2 points
Gee Dee Nen: -
Reveur: -

PART OF FORTUNE
Remember Ramon: con Ven (0º), con Ura (1º) = 12+12 = 24 points
Galient: con Ura (1º) = 12 points
Dynacam: squ Nod (0º) = 3 points
Daylami Star: squ Nod (0º) = 3 points
Gee Dee Nen: squ Nod (0º) = 3 points
Reveur: tri Mon (1º), squ Nod (0º) = 4+3 = 7 points

ANGULARITY
Remember Ramon: -
Galient: -
Dynacam: -
Daylami Star: -
Gee Dee Nen: -
Reveur: Mon (0º) has already been counted = 0 points

TOTALS
1. Remember Ramon: 12+6+24+0 = 42 points
2. Galient: 14+0+12+0 = 26 points
3. Reveur: 15+0+7+0 = 22 points
4. Daylami Star: 6+2+3+0 = 11 points
5. Gee Dee Nen: 8+0+3+0 = 11 points
6. Dynacam: 2+0+3+0 = 5 points

Reveur received 15 points for natal Moon, the position of which is suspect, so it's really between Remember Ramon and Galient. The former lead all the way to 2f out, so perhaps pacing was not perfect (i.e. the fault of jockey). All in all, not a bad assessment.

Taking it one step further, we can multiply their chances as given by starting prices (final odds) with the above point values:

1. Remember Ramon 7/2: 42*0.22 = 9.33
2. Galient 15/8F: 26*0.35 = 9.04
3. Daylami Star 3/1: 11*0.25 = 2.75
4. Gee Dee Nen 9/1: 11*0.10 = 1.10
5. Dynacam 6/1: 5*0.17 = 0.83
6. Reveur 33/1: 22*0.03 = 0.65

Very close between the first two. What's striking about this list is that, other than for Remember Ramon, it replicates the order of finish exactly. I really ike this list even though it doesn't indicate the eventual winner. Will try this approach for the 6:45 at Hamilton tonight.