Ok, so in my suggestion. Saturn is stronger than Venus after 8 minutes and remains for the majority of the game. I think Japan have a good chance.
However, your suggestion EhabAtari, is more in favour of USA. Moon in 4th is natural house, Mercury in 8th is bad news, but Mercury is in natural sign. But Pisces moon isn't too bad either. USA win for you then.
I get the feeling USA will do well in this match so USA to lift the trophy.