Can Astrology Predt major earthquakes?

[Amit Dave]

Hi
I am an engineer from Mumbai India. I am working on planets pull and tidal force effect on earthquakes. Accuracy of prediction is 80%. Yesterdays chile earthquake of 7.1 was predicted well in advance (without place)
Next major quake dates are 18/19 and 25/26 th January 2011
For theory and dates of 2011 please see my blog and web page
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

[dr. farr]

80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!

[juicey J.]

If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

[Claire19]

Originally Posted by juicey J.

If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

Uranus and Pluto are major predictors of earthquake and major upheaval but then planet Earth has these in lesser or greater degree most of the time. If the places can be pinpointed with accuracy then many lives can maybe be saved with early warnings for evacuation.

[Amit Dave]

Originally Posted by Claire19

Uranus and Pluto are major predictors of earthquake and major upheaval but then planet Earth has these in lessor greater degree most of the time.
If the places can be pinpointed with accuracy then many lives can maybe be saved with early warnings for evacuation.

Hi
As per my calculations ,which are based on gravitational pull and tidal force by planet on earth,Uranus and Neptune and pluto are far away to cause pull
Major planets are to to be considered
Amit

[Claire19]

Originally Posted by Amit Dave

Hi
As per my calculations ,which are based on gravitational pull and tidal force by planet on earth,Uranus and Neptune and pluto are far away to cause pull
Major planets are to to be considered
Amit

They are the indicators of upheaval and chaos and they are not too far away if they can affect our personal lives in our personal charts and we know they do. With the Universal workings I think it is a mistake to use distance as a premise in that way.....I dont know what you mean by major planets if they are not???? combinations of these major outer planets are the indicators...

Tidal pull is ruled by our Moon... The SUn has a major influence on us with the sun spot activity.. Neptune is indicator of major inundation and floods. Pluto rules underwater and beneath the crust activity. Uranus is thunder and lightning, tornadoes, storms and all major air activity causing disruption.

Any credible scientist and all informed astrologers know this. I dont know what techniques you use.

Using astrological technique I would say that Uranus in Aries coming into square with Pluto in Capricorn on and off during 2011 should mean major upheaval. Using an orb of not more then 3 degrees...let us see what happens.

What do you ascribe to the major flooding that the Australian north is experiencing right now. Much worse than our usual and after a long period of drought.....

[Amit Dave]

Originally Posted by juicey J.

If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

[Amit Dave]

Originally Posted by juicey J.

If you actually have achieved 80% accuracy in predicting earth quakes (no offensive but I'm skeptical) you will go down in the history books and might be in the running for the noble prize or times person of the year.

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

[Claire19]

Originally Posted by dr. farr

80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!

Yes!!!! Please do that.

[Amit Dave]

Originally Posted by dr. farr

80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!

hi
please see my theory , past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

[Amit Dave]

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

[Claire19]

Originally Posted by Amit Dave

hi
please see my past records ,as evaluated by experts in the field.please see my blog , my web page and Earthquake prediction forum charts by experts evaluators.

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html Amit daves forecast

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

next quakes will be

11Th January----6+
18Th January ---7+
25Th January----7+
All dates + or - one day
places not Known
Amit

Places not known. I would suggest it is all a little useless then.

[Olivia]

Actually, it looks like astrology can do it, but not by this method. I think Dr Farr remembers a mutual friend from another forum who'd predicted three major earthquakes - and sent letters to both his government and the embassies of the countries involved before the disasters struck.

Sadly, nobody took him seriously, even after all three earthquakes and the loss of over 100,000 lives. And he was, and continued for some time after, to ask them for seismic maps, as those are often a necessity to finding the right spot (sometimes the astrology alone is very clear - if you have something happening right smack in a major city, for example).

But they wouldn't send the maps, and even now, the scientists in his country dismiss it all as 'lucky guesswork' when it's anything but - it's weeks upon weeks of reading and researching mundane charts - and he did present the principles of it to the scientists there who work in earthquakes.

He said in order to continue the work, he would need more seismic information and actual funding, but that's never come through, sadly.

He's predicted a couple of earthquakes since then but pretty much has given it up as something to do full-time because he doesn't have all the data he'd need, and realistically mundane astrology of that kind could do with a team of astrologers, not just one guy putting his livelihood on hold to do this.

Such a shame, and an absolute tragedy. Astrology doesn't make sense in the materialist paradigm, so as far as they're concerned he's just a 'good guesser'.

[Amit Dave]

Originally Posted by dr. farr

80 % accuracy is amazingly high-congratulations to you if in fact you have developed a method to achieve this level; if you have PLEASE publish it in some leading astrological periodical as an important contribution to the objective validation of the astrological art!

HI
PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE OF 7.4 IS THE PROOF OF HOW MUCH ACCURACY ( DATE HIT) CAN BE ACHIEVED.
pl see my blog and web page

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

watch 25/26th January also.
one quake of 6.2 alresdy occured at Tazakistan yesterday
Amit

[dr. farr]

I would like to say that the OP's ideas and predictive model are quite interesting and are certainly deserving of further testing in practice. Also thanks to AmitDave for sharing these ideas and this research.
Perhaps this thread should be moved to our AW research and development forum, perhaps inspiring some of our AW members to test out AmitDave's intriguing model...

[Amit Dave]

Hi
Major earthquake dates for February 2011 are now posted on my blog and web site

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ see calender on web page

one date more potent ie 18/19th February 2011 which may give quake more than 6.5
watch out
Amit

[Fourpillars]

80% accuracy sounds amazing, but is it?

After reading the mentioned blog I noticed that the predictions are done on a + or - one day basis, and no location is given for the expected quake.
So this means that if an earthquake is predicted for May 6th, then it is considered accurate if a quake happens on the 5th, 6th ot 7th.

So how amazing is 80% ?
I did some back of the envelop calculation.

First I take some numbers from the earthquake stats.
Here I found what I need:
Earthquake stats and facts
-------
Magnitude Average Annually
8 and higher 1
7 - 7.9 15
6 - 6.9 134
5 - 5.9 1319
--------

So we get about 150 R6 or higher quakes per year.
Less than R6 is not worth talking about , because we get 3 to 4 per day of them.

Now , 150/365 becomes about 41% chance for a R6 earthquake on a given day. That means 59% for no earthquake.
The chance to have no R6 quake 3 days in a row becomes: 0.59 * 0.59 * 0.59 , which happens to work out as 20.5% chance.
So the chance to get a R6 quake within any random 3 day period is 79.5%
So to get 80% accuracy with astrology is in this case not so amazing, it is close to normal expectation.

Now, sometimes there will be two R6 quakes on a single day, so there are probably somewhat less than 150 days with R6 quakes.

My conclusion: 80% is in this case not as convincing as it appears.
Predictions will either have to be to the day (not 3 day), or give a region where the quake is expected.