Saturday's race (May 13, 2006)

[aquirata]

Today's race is the 2:40 at Lingfield, a stakes over 1m3f. The racecard can be viewed at http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card.sd?race_id=406854&r_date=2006-5-13&flag=1&cards=1

Date: May 13, 2006
Time: 2:40 pm
Place: Lingfield, UK

RACE ANGLES
Asc: 20º Vir, ruled by the Mer
MC: 17º Gem, ruled by Mer
Des: 20º Pis, ruled by Jup
IC: 17º Sag, ruled by Jup

RUNNERS' BIRTHDATES
Linda´s Lad 23Feb'03
Baan 12Mar'03
Before You Go 12Jan'03
Botteen 28Feb'03
Hazeymm 27Mar'03

POINT VALUES
Conjunction: 12 points
Opposition: 6 points
Trine: 4 points
Square: 3 points
Sextile: 2 points

NATAL MOON CONTACTING RACE MOON, RULERS OF RACE ANGLES (8º ORB) OR RACE ANGLES (8º ORB)
Linda´s Lad: con Mon = 12 points
Baan: tri Jup = 4 points
Before You Go: con Mer, opp Jup, tri Asc = 12+6+4 = 22 points
Botteen: squ Mer, squ Jup = 3+3 = 6 points
Hazeymm: squ Jup = 3 points

NATAL MERCURY (RACE MC RULER) CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES (1.5º ORB) OR RACE ANGLES (1.5º ORB)
Linda´s Lad: -
Baan: tri Jup = 4 points
Before You Go: tri Asc = 4 points
Botteen: -
Hazeymm: -

NATAL MARS CONTACTING RULERS OF RACE ANGLES (1.5º ORB) OR RACE ANGLES (1.5º ORB)
Linda´s Lad: -
Baan: -
Before You Go: -
Botteen: -
Hazeymm: sex Jup = 2 points

RACE FORTUNA'S ASPECTS (1.5º ORB, EXCEPT 8º ORB TO NATAL MOON)
Linda´s Lad: squ Mar, squ Sat = 3+3 = 6 points
Baan: squ Sat = 3 points
Before You Go: squ Sat = 3 points
Botteen: squ Sat = 3 points
Hazeymm: squ Sat = 3 points

ANGULARITY OF PLANETS NOT ALREADY CONSIDERED (1.5º ORB)
Linda´s Lad: squ Plu = 3 points
Baan: opp Sun, squ Plu = 6+3 = 9 points
Before You Go: opp Plu = 6 points
Botteen: squ Plu = 3 points
Hazeymm: squ Plu = 3 points

TOTALS
Before You Go: 22+4+0+3+6 = 35 points
Baan: 4+4+0+3+9 = 20 points
Linda´s Lad: 12+0+0+6 = 18 points
Botteen: 6+0+0+3+3 = 12 points
Hazeymm: 3+0+2+3+3 = 11 points

BETTING FORECAST
7/4 Linda´s Lad, 11/4 Hazeymm, 4/1 Before You Go, 9/2 Botteen, 7/1 Baan

FINAL ASSESSMENT
1. Before You Go: 0.20*35 = 7.00
2. Linda´s Lad: 0.36*18 = 6.55
3. Hazeymm: 0.27*11 = 2.93
Baan: 0.13*20 = 2.50
Botteen: 0.18*12 = 2.18

Before You Go narrowly edges out the favourite for first spot. However, Linda’s Lad comes out on top when using current prices:

1. Linda´s Lad 2/1: 0.33*18 = 6.00
2. Before You Go 6/1: 0.14*35 = 5.00
3. Botteen 5/2: 0.29*12 = 3.43
Baan 9/1: 0.10*20 = 2.00
Hazeymm 5/1: 0.17*11 = 1.83

[aquirata]

RESULT
1st (1) Linda's Lad 15-8 Fav
2nd (5) Hazeymm 7-1
3rd (2) Baan 9-1
5 ran
Also: 9-2 Before You Go 4th

So the favourite takes this race as indicated. A few surprises, however:
* Hazeymm performed much better than expected
* Before You Go and Botteen performed much worse than expected
There are two factors not yet mentioned in support of Hazeymm:
1. nMer con rVen (1º)
2. nMer con r8th (1º)
Apart from Baan's nSun con rDes and Before You Go's nPlu con rIC, no other runner has direct connection to race cusps. It is entirely possible that a conjunction to a cusp is more significant than say a trine to an angle. And this connection is further strengthened by a con to rVen. Certainly something to look out for. As a side note, nMer is even closer to the r8th cusp with Regiomontanus houses.

If we allow 12 points for both conjunctions, Hazeymm's total points jump to 35, matching that of Before You Go. This would explain the good performance by Hazeymm.

As for the disappointments, we read the following explanations:

"Curiously, Blue Riband Trial winner Before You Go did not look too happy on the track, and swung wide off the bend. He was unable to go the pace late on and faded near the line."

"Botteen was the first beaten and broke a leg when falling over a furlong from home."

Most of the points for Before You Go are from his natal Moon, the position of which could be off. His Plu on the Des is also a bit wide (1º25'), and certainly over the 1º limit even if we allow for daily movement due to uncertainty of birth time. Chopping the points from his natal Moon in half and disallowing his angularity points would result in 18 points for him.

The same can be said for Botteen: uncertain natal Moon position coupled with too wide a square from race For to nSat could reduce his points to 6 points.

In the case of Baan, perhaps the nSun opp rAsc should be taken as a conjunction (+6 points). The nSun is also con rPoF, albeit at 2º06' orb. Furthermore, the Sun's orb could be extended to 2.5 degrees, allowing 0.5 degree for uncertainty of position. If that's the case, this gets Baan a further addition of 12 points.

The post-mortem assessment would thus look like this:

1. Linda´s Lad: 0.35*18 = 6.26
2. Hazeymm: 0.12*35 = 4.38
3. Baan: 0.10*38 = 3.80
Before You Go: 0.18*18 = 3.27
Botteen: 0.33*6 = 2.00

This would have given the exact order of finish, so the above points may well be remembered for future analysis.